African Nations Face Economic Crisis from Middle East Conflict They Didn’t Start

Rising fuel costs across Africa due to Middle East conflicts are devastating local economies and wiping out daily profits for workers like taxi drivers. The continent, which imports most of its refined oil, is experiencing sharp increases in fuel prices and living costs from global crises it played no role in creating.

LAGOS, Nigeria (AP) — When taxi driver Adegbola Isaac filled up his tank twice over the weekend in Lagos, he watched fuel prices surge to 1,350 naira ($0.99) per liter — a staggering 35% jump since Middle East hostilities began. The increase has eliminated nearly all his daily earnings.

“It is hitting hard,” Isaac shared with The Associated Press.

Isaac represents millions of Africans experiencing severe economic consequences from distant Middle Eastern warfare that commenced February 28th with coordinated U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran.

Across Africa, fuel cost increases resulting from the largely blocked Strait of Hormuz are intensifying existing financial struggles in some of the globe’s most impoverished communities.

This recent crisis follows a troubling pattern.

Once again, Africa faces devastating impacts from international emergencies it didn’t create.

Following COVID-19, the Ukraine conflict, and now Middle Eastern warfare, the world’s most rapidly expanding continent — whose population matches China and India — bears the brunt of cascading effects including worldwide competition for essential resources like fuel and fertilizer.

Since most African nations import refined petroleum products, consequences arrived quickly, driving up retail fuel costs throughout Africa and triggering price increases for virtually all goods and services.

Analysts explain that African countries maintain deep connections to international markets and face vulnerability to worldwide disruptions due to their reliance on major economic powers.

On Friday, the United Nations announced efforts to restore safe fertilizer transport through the Strait of Hormuz, hoping to strengthen broader diplomatic initiatives regarding the Iran conflict.

A 2025 U.N. Trade and Development (UNCTAD) analysis, which characterizes Africa as “the epicenter of overlapping global crises,” reveals that over half the continent’s trade occurs with five countries outside Africa.

Kenya imports 100% of its fuel from Middle Eastern sources, especially the United Arab Emirates, with retailers reporting 20% of stations already experiencing shortages. Uganda’s fuel reserves were initially expected to last only several weeks.

South Africa obtains substantial fuel supplies from Saudi Arabia. Nigeria, despite being Africa’s top oil producer, lacks adequate refining infrastructure and must import processed petroleum from Europe.

Zimbabwean healthcare workers staged protests demanding salary increases as living expenses skyrocketed. Government officials responded by planning to boost fuel-ethanol blending from 5% to 20%. However, higher ethanol concentrations can damage vehicles and increase harmful emissions.

“I now avoid going into town during peak hours because the fares are too high,” explained Washington Nyakarize, a mobile phone vendor operating in Harare’s Central Business District. “If I go later, the charge is a bit lower, but I lose business, because most customers come early in the morning.”

Following reduced Saudi Arabian fuel deliveries to South Africa, diesel-dependent sectors began emergency purchasing amid supply fears. This occurred despite assurances from the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources that the nation maintains unused strategic stockpiles and alternative supply channels.

UNCTAD reports that fertilizer access throughout Africa, including war-torn regions like Sudan and Somalia, will face significant disruption.

Kenya’s flower sector has documented weekly losses reaching $1.4 million since Iranian hostilities started, with producers citing reduced demand and transportation interruptions.

Specialists warn the conflict could push Africa into unprecedented circumstances if fighting continues.

“If the conflict persists for another month or two, honestly, we’re going to be in unknown terrain, that no one else, like, no one can really predict, and we just have to wait and see,” stated Zainab Usman, a senior research scholar at the New York-based Center on Global Energy Policy.

Facing global oil supply constraints, African governments are exploring alternative procurement channels.

Bloomberg reported this week that multiple nations including South Africa, Kenya and Ghana have contacted Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery seeking fuel agreements.

Though the Dangote facility regularly ships jet fuel to American and Asian markets, it announced this week completing sales of 12 refined petroleum shipments to various African countries, including Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Tanzania, Ghana and Togo — marking the largest such transaction since achieving full operational capacity earlier this year.

Energy specialists caution that the Dangote refinery may struggle to satisfy growing continental demand if planned expansions face delays or crude oil supply disruptions occur.

“As long as there is a steady supply of crude oil, the (Dangote) refinery has the capacity to meet some of the needs” from across the continent, according to Olufola Wusu, a Lagos-based oil and gas expert who was part of a team that helped review Nigeria’s national gas policy.