Brazilian Election Poll Shows Tight Race Between Lula and Bolsonaro’s Son

A new poll from Brazil reveals President Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in potential runoff scenarios for the upcoming October election. The survey shows both candidates also have the highest voter rejection rates.

SAO PAULO, March 7 – New polling data from Brazil indicates a potential runoff between current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro would be virtually deadlocked, based on a Datafolha survey published Saturday.

The survey reveals that in a hypothetical runoff election held now, Lula would capture 46% of voter support while Flavio, who is the oldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, would secure 43% – a margin within the statistical margin of error.

When polling tested a matchup between Lula and Sao Paulo state governor Tarcisio de Freitas, results showed similar closeness with 45% backing Lula and 42% supporting de Freitas, again representing a statistical dead heat.

The nation’s general election will take place on October 4. Should no presidential hopeful win an outright majority, the top two vote-getters will compete in a runoff election scheduled for October 25.

The survey data indicates that 80-year-old Lula, who would be seeking his fourth presidential term, maintains an advantage in all first-round polling scenarios. Meanwhile, 44-year-old Flavio’s political prospects have strengthened since his father, currently imprisoned, endorsed his candidacy in December.

Both Lula and Flavio registered the survey’s highest unfavorability numbers. The poll found that 46% of respondents stated they would refuse to vote for Lula regardless of circumstances, while 45% expressed the same sentiment about Flavio – representing another virtual tie.

The Datafolha organization conducted interviews with 2,004 registered voters between Tuesday and Thursday across 137 municipalities throughout the country. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.