California GOP Congressman Faces Tough Choice After Redistricting Shakeup

Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley's California district has been carved up by redistricting, leaving him with difficult options for reelection. He plans to announce Monday whether he'll challenge a fellow Republican or run in a Democratic-leaning district.

WASHINGTON — California Republican Congressman Kevin Kiley has watched his political world turn upside down over the past year as redistricting battles have completely redrawn the boundaries of his district.

Despite the upheaval, Kiley remains determined to fight back. As he puts it: “I’m not going away at all.”

This defiant attitude has characterized Kiley’s approach in Congress lately. One day he’s attacking Democrats and continuing his long-running feud with California Governor Gavin Newsom, including criticism of the state’s high-speed rail project. The next day, he’s opposing President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and taking aim at House Speaker Mike Johnson’s leadership style.

The former state lawmaker is using this dual-front strategy as he tries to secure a third House term after watching his current district get carved up into six separate pieces, severely limiting his options to stay in office. He’s set to reveal his reelection decision on Monday.

Kiley’s situation demonstrates how the redistricting battles that started in Texas at Trump’s request and prompted Democratic retaliation in California have forced some lawmakers to scramble to save their political futures.

According to his social media posts, Kiley has narrowed his choices to two possibilities. He could face off against fellow Republican Tom McClintock in a primary and potentially again in the general election, since California’s system advances the top two primary vote-getters regardless of party affiliation. Alternatively, he could run in a district that leans Democratic and try to win despite the challenging environment Republicans face in midterm elections.

Republican strategist Rob Stutzman noted the congressman’s precarious position: “He’s in real jeopardy of not coming back to Congress. Having said that, I think he’s got a better shot than most would under this circumstance. He’s a shrewd politician. He works hard.”

The redistricting war escalated when Texas redrew its maps to create five additional Republican-friendly districts, prompting California to respond similarly. California voters approved new congressional boundaries designed to give Democrats better chances of winning up to five more seats.

Several other California Republicans are also facing tougher reelection battles. Representatives Ken Calvert and Young Kim will compete against each other in a newly drawn district. Rep. Darrell Issa plans to run for a 13th term in his current district, which now favors Democrats. Rep. David Valadao’s Central Valley district has become even more Democratic-leaning.

Kiley has been vocal about these challenges, introducing legislation to prevent states from conducting multiple congressional redistricting efforts after each ten-year census. However, the bill has gained little traction with only one co-sponsor. He’s also used House floor speeches to criticize Johnson for failing to prevent the redistricting conflicts that have spread to states like Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.

During one floor speech, he questioned: “Why is the leader of this institution simply watching as the institution crumbles?”

Johnson dismissed Kiley’s criticism as “misinformed” and highlighted his efforts to combat California’s redistricting changes, saying he raised $13 million to fight the redistricting effort through ballot measures.

“Last cycle, I practically lived in California,” Johnson said. “I spent so many days campaigning in California, I thought Gavin Newsom was going to send me a tax bill. I’ll be out there again because California is equally important to us now as it always has been.”

On social media, Kiley indicated he’s choosing between McClintock’s solidly Republican district and an open Sacramento County-centered district where Democrat Kamala Harris would have won the 2024 presidential race by roughly 8 percentage points.

“Over the coming weeks leading up to the March 4 filing deadline, I will be talking with constituents and folks throughout the state about the best path forward, and I would love to hear from you,” he posted. “Thank you for all of the encouragement in working through a set of a challenges we never expected.”

His willingness to clash with GOP leadership and Trump might help him with independent voters crucial for success in the Democratic-leaning Sacramento area.

Earlier this month, Kiley joined five other Republicans in voting to eliminate tariffs Trump had imposed on Canada. Previously, he voted to override two Trump vetoes. He also introduced legislation to temporarily extend health care subsidies in the Affordable Care Act marketplace, though he ultimately opposed the three-year extension Democrats wanted.

“He’s positioning himself to basically run as a Republican that is independent of the speaker and the leadership, and independent from the White House,” Stutzman explained.

Stutzman added that some of Kiley’s actions reflect genuine frustration with Republican leaders over the redistricting battles.

“They started a fight and then left these guys bleeding on the battlefield,” Stutzman said.

According to Stutzman, the Sacramento-area district could work well for Kiley since part of his political identity involves opposing Newsom, and the governor hasn’t performed as strongly there compared to statewide results.

“He’s going to put up a good fight in this seat — if that’s what he does,” Stutzman said.

Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell doubts Republicans can win the seat in an election likely to focus on Trump.

“It is a more swingy seat than a seat in Santa Monica or San Francisco, but it’s not a seat that I think a Republican wins, especially not in a blue wave election,” said Mitchell, who specializes in political data analysis.

Mitchell believes Kiley’s best chance of returning to Congress involves defeating McClintock, who has served nine House terms after spending 22 years in the California legislature. He’s considered among the most conservative members of California’s congressional delegation.

Regarding a potential Kiley challenge, McClintock said: “Desperate people do desperate things, but it’s a free country and he’s free to run where he wishes.”

The Club for Growth Political Action Committee, a major force in GOP primaries that typically supports the most fiscally conservative Republican candidates, endorsed McClintock last week. Trump also gave McClintock his “Complete and Total Endorsement.”

These endorsements will be crucial for McClintock, who started the year with a significant financial disadvantage compared to Kiley. Federal Election Commission filings show McClintock had less than $100,000 in cash at the end of December, while Kiley had over $2 million.

Kiley’s campaign has already put some of those resources to work, spending more than $175,000 earlier this month on a political advertisement portraying him as Newsom’s opponent. “That’s why President Trump said no one has fought Gavin Newsom harder than Kevin,” the ad’s narrator states.

Ad-Impact, which monitors political advertising spending, reported most of the money went toward the Fresno and Visalia media markets. Mitchell suggests the lack of Sacramento spending might indicate Kiley’s intentions.

“I should expect to see him at things in this part of the district or Republicans all excited about Kiley in this part of the districts. It’s like crickets,” Mitchell observed.

Kiley emphasized that the advertisements don’t necessarily signal a final decision. He said he’s consulting with current constituents as well as potential future ones, “seeing which is the best fit.”