Chicago-based exchange operator Cboe announced plans to introduce prediction market contracts that offer partial payouts based on accuracy rather than traditional all-or-nothing betting. The new approach mimics features found in popular betting apps and will debut with a Mini S&P 500 Index contract.
Chicago-based derivatives and securities exchange operator Cboe announced Monday its intention to introduce prediction market contracts featuring flexible payout structures that reward traders based on the precision of their forecasts, departing from conventional winner-take-all formats.
This approach resembles functionality found in popular betting applications, where participants can withdraw their wagers early while events unfold, and draws inspiration from traditional vertical spread concepts within options trading.
“Real-world opinions aren’t always binary, and investors shouldn’t be confined to a yes-or-no framework,” stated JJ Kinahan, Head of retail expansion and alternative investment products at Cboe.
The company intends to introduce this new framework using a Mini S&P 500 Index prediction market contract, building upon Cboe’s previous work developing a regulated product utilizing options structures for complete win-or-lose payouts.
Leading U.S. exchange operators are progressively pursuing opportunities within the event prediction markets sector, which has gained significant popularity following the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle.
Nasdaq is currently awaiting SEC approval for prediction market-style options connected to major stock indexes, while Intercontinental Exchange has committed up to $2 billion in investments to Polymarket.
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