Danish PM’s Coalition Poised for Parliamentary Victory in March Election

Recent polling data suggests Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen's left-leaning political alliance is approaching a parliamentary majority ahead of the March 24 election. The surveys indicate her Social Democrats and allied parties could secure 87-88 seats in the 179-member legislature, potentially ending Denmark's current cross-party government arrangement.

COPENHAGEN, Feb 27 – New polling data released ahead of Denmark’s upcoming March 24 parliamentary election suggests Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s Social Democrats and their left-leaning allies are approaching a legislative majority, potentially bringing an end to almost four years of cross-party governance.

The upcoming vote will test whether Danish citizens support Frederiksen’s handling of sovereignty issues regarding Greenland and her international diplomatic efforts, or whether they believe her administration has overlooked pressing domestic issues, as her political opponents contend.

Recent surveys conducted by Epinion and Megafon for television networks DR and TV2 project the left-leaning coalition under Frederiksen’s leadership could capture between 87-88 seats in Denmark’s 179-member legislative body, falling just short of the 90 seats required for an outright majority.

Meanwhile, the conservative coalition headed by Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen from the Liberal Party is expected to secure between 73-77 seats based on the same polling data.

The parliamentary structure includes four representatives from Greenland and the Faroe Islands, who typically remain neutral on Denmark’s internal political matters but may play a crucial role if the election results are tight.

While Danish political parties have historically organized into left and right coalitions, the 2022 election resulted in an unusual cross-party alliance combining the Social Democrats, Liberal Party, and the Moderates under Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, who previously served as prime minister.

This existing coalition appears headed for a loss of its majority position, with polling showing a decline of 13-15 percentage points across both surveys.

During Thursday’s initial leaders’ debate, sharp disagreements emerged over Frederiksen’s proposed wealth tax plan designed to generate funding for education and social welfare programs.

Liberal Alliance leader Alex Vanopslagh characterized the proposal as “pettiness,” while Moderates leader Rasmussen labeled it “stupid.”

Those opposing the wealth tax pointed to Norway’s experience with similar legislation, arguing it caused wealthy individuals to relocate overseas and potentially damages long-term economic development. Supporters counter that such a measure would help address income inequality while providing resources for social programs.

Polling shows Frederiksen’s Social Democrats have recovered from a December low point of 17% support, now registering 20.8% and 21.8% in the recent surveys. This remains below their 28% showing in the 2022 election.