Ethiopia’s Tigray Region Faces Economic Crisis Amid War Fears

Tour guide Gebreegziabher Berehe and other residents of Ethiopia's Tigray region are struggling economically as tensions rise between local authorities and the federal government. The area is bracing for potential renewed conflict just over a year after a devastating war ended in November 2022.

MEKELE, Ethiopia — Tour guide Gebreegziabher Berehe no longer expects visitors to show up in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, as concerns mount about a possible return to warfare.

The 37-year-old says his tourism business has completely collapsed, bank machines in Mekele sit without cash, and he’s thinking about leaving Ethiopia since he can’t make ends meet anymore.

“If war arises again, I think the situation will be even more severe than before,” Berehe explained. “My colleagues and I are now facing serious economic and moral crises, even before hearing the sound of any gun.”

An uneasy quiet has settled over Mekele, which serves as the regional capital, though friction continues building between regional leaders and Ethiopia’s federal government based in Addis Ababa.

The region has been preparing for potential renewed warfare following a peace agreement signed in November 2022 that ended brutal fighting. That conflict claimed thousands of lives as Ethiopian federal forces, supported by troops from neighboring Eritrea, battled against Tigrayan military units.

Currently, Tigray’s leadership claims Ethiopian federal officials have violated the peace accord through drone attacks. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s government alleges that Eritrea has shifted course to support and finance armed groups within Tigray, which borders the country.

The nightmare scenario involves Eritrea joining forces with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, Tigray’s governing body, in armed conflict against Ethiopian military forces.

The war that concluded in 2022 was devastating, marked by extensive reports of sexual assault and the deliberate restriction of food supplies as a military tactic.

Numerous Mekele residents are seeking ways to flee any new violence while possible, remembering the communication shutdown and movement restrictions Ethiopia’s government placed on the region during the previous conflict.

Some analysts believe a potential trigger for war lies in Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s aggressive position regarding efforts to secure Red Sea access for landlocked Ethiopia through Eritrea, which Ethiopia lost when Eritrea became independent in 1993 following decades of guerrilla conflict.

Abiy declared to parliament earlier this month that the Red Sea and Ethiopia “cannot remain separated forever.” Eritrean government spokesperson Yemane Gebremeskel rejected Abiy’s goal as “delusional malaise” when speaking with The Associated Press.

Eritrea, concerned about a potential military attack on its Assab port, has begun rebuilding relationships with its former enemies in Tigray’s leadership, despite denying any formal partnership. This development has worried officials in Addis Ababa, prompting the Ethiopian government to mobilize reserve troops.

Since assuming power in 2018, Abiy has worked to establish Ethiopia’s international reputation as an emerging power. However, multiple conflicts throughout his tenure have hindered these efforts.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has urged all sides to show restraint, with similar appeals from the European Union and the United Kingdom, which has advised its citizens against visiting the region.

On January 29, Ethiopian Airlines, the country’s flag carrier, suspended flights to Tigray following violent clashes between federal soldiers and Tigrayan forces in Tselemti district, an area claimed by both Tigray and the adjacent Amhara region. Flight service resumed on February 3.

The fighting was followed by drone attacks that left one person dead and another wounded. Tigrayan officials blamed Ethiopian forces for the strike. Ethiopia’s military has not publicly addressed the accusation.

These incidents have damaged travel to Tigray, whose historic stone churches and stunning mountain terrain provide a scarce but crucial source of foreign currency and jobs through tourism.

As business owners like Berehe fear financial losses, Tigray agricultural workers such as Johannes Tesfay share similar concerns.

Tesfay farms north of Mekele in Debretsion, where his family cultivates chili peppers, potatoes and onions at the foot of mountains that Eritrean soldiers previously used to enter Ethiopia during the recent conflict, destroying crops and farm machinery.

Distribution problems linked to the renewed hostilities have left him deeply worried.

“There’s no fuel for my irrigation pumps, there’s no fertilizer and there’s barely any transportation for buyers to bring the produce to market,” he explained.

When asked about his plans if violence returns to the area, Tesfay gazed toward the mountains and responded, “What can we do? All we can do is pray. We need help from the global community to make some kind of reconciliation between all the forces.”