European Intelligence Chiefs Doubt Ukraine Peace Deal Will Happen This Year

Senior European intelligence officials express skepticism about reaching a Ukraine peace agreement in 2026, despite Trump administration claims of progress. Five spy agency heads say Russia is using negotiations primarily to seek sanctions relief rather than genuine peace.

MUNICH – Five senior European intelligence officials are casting doubt on President Trump’s optimistic assessment that a Ukraine peace deal is “reasonably close,” telling Reuters they believe Russia has no intention of ending the conflict anytime soon.

The intelligence chiefs, who requested anonymity when speaking with Reuters recently, indicated that Moscow is primarily using ongoing diplomatic discussions with the United States to pursue sanctions relief and business opportunities rather than genuine peace negotiations.

One European intelligence leader characterized the discussions – including the latest round held in Geneva this week – as “negotiation theatre.”

These assessments reveal a significant divide between European intelligence services and the White House, which according to Ukraine hopes to secure a peace agreement by June, ahead of November’s U.S. congressional midterm elections. Trump has expressed confidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in making a deal.

“Russia is not seeking a peace agreement. They are seeking their strategic goals, and those have not changed,” stated one intelligence chief. Moscow’s objectives continue to include removing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from power and transforming Ukraine into a “neutral” buffer zone between Russia and Western nations.

A second intelligence official emphasized that Russia has neither the desire nor the necessity for rapid peace, noting that the Russian economy is “not on the verge of collapse.”

While the intelligence leaders did not reveal their information sources, their agencies employ human intelligence assets, communications intercepts, and various other collection methods. All five confirmed they prioritize Russia as a key intelligence target.

Russia’s foreign ministry has not yet responded to requests for comment.

Putin has indicated willingness to pursue peace, but only under his conditions. Russian officials maintain that European governments have consistently misjudged Russia in their analyses.

DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS CONTINUE

Ukrainian and Russian representatives conducted their third U.S.-facilitated meeting of 2026 this week without achieving breakthroughs on major disputes, particularly territorial issues.

Russia demands that Ukraine withdraw its military forces from the remaining 20% of eastern Donetsk region not under Russian control, a requirement Ukraine categorically rejects.

According to the second intelligence official, while Russia might accept territorial gains limited to the rest of Donetsk, this would not satisfy Moscow’s broader goal of removing Zelenskyy’s pro-Western administration.

A third intelligence chief warned against assuming that Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donetsk would rapidly produce a comprehensive peace agreement.

“In the case of the Russians getting these concessions, I (think) that this is maybe the beginning of actual negotiations,” the official predicted, suggesting Russia would then present additional demands.

This same official also criticized what they described as “very limited” negotiating expertise regarding Russia throughout the West, including Europe, despite Zelenskyy’s call for active European participation in the talks.

The U.S. negotiating team is headed by Steve Witkoff, a real estate developer and longtime Trump associate, along with Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law.

While both men have handled other conflicts for Trump, neither possesses formal diplomatic training or specialized knowledge of Russia or Ukraine.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly responded to the criticism by stating that anonymous complaints do not assist U.S. peace efforts. “President Trump and his team have done more than anyone to bring both sides together to stop the killing and deliver a peace deal,” Kelly said.

ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS

Two officials reported that Moscow is attempting to divide negotiations into separate tracks – one addressing the war itself and another focusing on bilateral U.S.-Russia agreements that would include sanctions relief.

Zelenskyy revealed that his intelligence services informed him that U.S. and Russian negotiators have discussed bilateral cooperation deals worth up to $12 trillion, proposed by Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev.

The European officials did not elaborate on these discussions.

The second intelligence chief suggested this proposal targets both Trump’s interests and Russian oligarchs who have not benefited from the war due to sanctions but whose support Putin requires as Russia’s economy faces increasing challenges.

This official characterized Russia as a “resilient society” capable of withstanding hardship.

However, the third official identified “very high” financial risks facing Russia in the latter half of 2026, citing factors including Moscow’s restricted capital market access due to sanctions and elevated borrowing costs.

Economic analysts suggest Russia’s economy is experiencing somewhere between stagnation and recession after achieving only 1% growth last year.

Russia’s central bank has set its key interest rate at 15.5%, directly affecting borrowing costs nationwide. The liquid portion of Russia’s emergency fund used to address budget deficits has decreased by more than half since the 2022 invasion began.