European Union Leaders Hope Hungarian Election Ends Orban’s Policy Blocks

European Union officials are hoping Hungary's April 12 election will remove Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has repeatedly blocked key EU policies including crucial aid to Ukraine. While polls suggest challenger Peter Magyar could win, EU diplomats don't expect dramatic policy changes if Orban loses power.

European Union leaders are eagerly awaiting Hungary’s April 12 election, hoping it will end Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s pattern of obstructing crucial EU initiatives, including essential financial support for Ukraine.

Current polling data indicates Orban’s nationalist Fidesz party, which has governed since 2010, may face defeat against Peter Magyar’s center-right Tisza party.

Orban has consistently frustrated EU colleagues through his close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and alliance with U.S. President Donald Trump. His recent obstruction of a critical 90 billion euro Ukrainian loan package has particularly angered European partners.

“This was the last straw that broke the camel’s back,” an EU diplomat stated. “On our side, the hope to talk reason into Orban is gone.”

Should Orban lose office, diplomats from several EU member nations anticipate an end to Hungary’s obstruction of various policies, from Ukrainian financial assistance to sanctions targeting Russia and violent Israeli settlers.

However, if Orban secures another victory and continues using his veto power, some officials predict efforts to marginalize Hungary within the union.

“It seems that ‘more of the same’ is no longer an option for most EU countries,” former Latvian Prime Minister Krisjanis Karins, who attended numerous EU summits with Orban, told Reuters.

“If Orban stays, we will have to change how we work,” a senior European official added.

Hungarian government representatives did not provide comment when contacted.

Reuters interviewed more than twelve current and former officials knowledgeable about Europe’s relationship with Hungary regarding next month’s election implications for the EU. Speaking anonymously about internal member state politics, many expressed frank frustration with Orban.

“I think everybody hopes Orban will lose,” a second EU diplomat remarked.

European officials have long worried about what they perceive as Hungary’s declining democratic standards under Orban’s leadership, as he has strengthened executive authority, restricted press freedom and NGO operations, and conducted campaigns criticizing the EU and its initiatives.

Orban rejects claims of undermining democracy, positioning himself as a protector of Europe’s traditional Christian principles against disconnected liberal leadership.

However, the Orban administration’s maintained ties with Moscow following Russia’s comprehensive Ukraine invasion in 2022 created a more significant rift between Budapest and numerous Western governments.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently characterized Orban’s Ukrainian loan veto as “gross disloyalty” that harmed the EU’s credibility and operational capacity.

While Brussels officials hope for improved relations with Budapest should Tisza prevail, they remain cautious about expectations.

Vera Jourova, former European Commission deputy head, told Reuters that an opposition victory would “renew the chance of unity on basic security matters” within the 27-member EU.

Yet Magyar, remembered in Brussels as an effective negotiator during his diplomatic service for Hungary, would likely remain among the most skeptical voices regarding migration policy and potential Ukrainian EU membership, officials note.

“I have very few illusions about Magyar’s world view. We should be careful not to expect too much,” a third EU diplomat explained. “The difference will be more in tone of voice than substance.”

“Magyar is from the same political family (as Orban), nobody is expecting a revolution,” another EU diplomat observed.

Magyar has expressed commitment to strengthening Hungary’s position within the EU and NATO, particularly seeking to access approximately 17 billion euros in EU funding that Brussels suspended due to Orban’s non-compliance with rule-of-law requirements.

Richard Demeny, an analyst at Budapest’s Political Capital think tank, stated: “I don’t expect 180 degrees change (from a Magyar-led government) regarding EU relations, but we can expect a more constructive relationship with Brussels.”

A Magyar adviser, speaking anonymously, confirmed that such a government would maintain similar positions to Orban’s on migration and EU expansion issues.

“But the difference,” the adviser explained, “is that Orban used this to blackmail (the EU) and represent the Russian interest. We will represent the Hungarian interest.”