French President Plans Nuclear Policy Update Amid Doubts About US Protection

French President Emmanuel Macron will deliver a major speech Monday outlining potential changes to France's nuclear deterrence strategy. The announcement comes as European leaders question whether the US can still be counted on for nuclear protection under President Trump's administration.

Deep beneath the ocean’s surface, France’s nuclear-powered submarines patrol as a final line of defense, ready to deliver devastating retaliation if their nation’s leader ever gives the order.

On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron will deliver a significant address outlining potential changes to how France might deploy its nuclear weapons carried by submarines and aircraft. The speech comes amid growing European anxiety that Russia’s aggression could expand beyond Ukraine’s borders, combined with questions about President Donald Trump’s commitment to defending allies.

For generations, Europe has depended on America’s nuclear shield, with US atomic weapons deployed across the continent since the 1950s to discourage Soviet and later Russian aggression. Recently, though, European leaders and security experts are expressing doubts about America’s willingness to deploy such weapons when necessary.

These concerns carry special weight for France, which stands as the European Union’s sole nuclear-armed nation among its 27 members.

Any adjustments to France’s nuclear strategy, which will be closely examined by both friends and foes, could rank among Macron’s most significant decisions during his final 14 months in office before the 2027 presidential race.

Macron’s decision to deliver this major nuclear policy address – his second such speech since taking office in 2017 – reflects his repeatedly expressed worries about shifting global security dynamics that endanger France and its partners.

Among those questioning America’s dependability is Rasmus Jarlov, who leads Denmark’s parliamentary Defense Committee.

“If things got really serious, I very much doubt that Trump would risk American cities to protect European cities,” he said in an interview with The Associated Press. “We don’t know but it seems very risky to rely on the American protection.”

Jarlov and other officials are now looking toward France for security assurances. Long-term, he believes additional European countries should develop their own nuclear capabilities – a previously unthinkable idea when US protection seemed guaranteed.

“The Nordic countries have the capacity. We have uranium, we have nuclear scientists. We can develop nuclear weapons,” he said. “Realistically, it will take a lot of time. So in the short term, we are looking to France.”

Global circumstances have shifted dramatically since Macron’s initial nuclear policy speech in 2020, replacing longtime assumptions with new uncertainties.

Russia’s comprehensive assault on Ukraine, now in its fifth year, brought warfare to Europe’s doorstep while Russian President Vladimir Putin repeatedly threatened nuclear escalation.

Both China and North Korea continue expanding their atomic arsenals. In October, Trump discussed potentially resuming US nuclear testing for the first time since 1992, though Energy Secretary Chris Wright later clarified this wouldn’t involve actual nuclear detonations.

Russia updated its nuclear doctrine in 2024, reducing the threshold for potential atomic retaliation. Britain announced plans to acquire nuclear-capable US F-35A fighter aircraft, restoring air-delivered nuclear strike capabilities it abandoned in the 1990s while maintaining only submarine-launched nuclear missiles.

Macron’s choice to speak at the Île Longue submarine base on Monday will emphasize that French leaders also possess nuclear capabilities in an increasingly volatile world. Each of France’s four nuclear submarines can deploy 16 M51 intercontinental ballistic missiles equipped with multiple warheads.

“There are high expectations from the allies and partners, and maybe also the adversaries, about how the French nuclear doctrine could evolve,” said Héloïse Fayet, a nuclear deterrence specialist at the French Institute of International Relations, a Paris think tank.

Speaking in an AP interview, Fayet said she’s hoping for “real changes.”

“Maybe something about a greater and a clearer French commitment to the protection of allies, thanks to the French nuclear weapons,” she said.

In 2020, Macron revealed France maintains fewer than 300 warheads – a figure that has stayed constant since former President Nicolas Sarkozy announced a modest reduction to that level in 2008.

Macron described this arsenal as adequate to cause “absolutely unacceptable damage” to the “political, economic, military nerve centers” of any nation threatening France’s “vital interests,” “whatever they may be.”

Nuclear experts will monitor whether Macron suggests the French arsenal might be insufficient and require expansion.

Nuclear deterrence language typically involves intentional vagueness, keeping potential adversaries uncertain about actions that might provoke atomic response. Macron administration officials, speaking anonymously about possible nuclear policy modifications, remained extremely cautious in their comments, particularly since nuclear decisions rest solely with the president.

“There will no doubt be some shifts, fairly substantial developments,” one of the officials said.

Using measured language in 2020, Macron indicated France’s “vital interests” that could warrant nuclear defense extend beyond national boundaries and possess “a European dimension.”

Several European countries have accepted Macron’s previous invitation to discuss French nuclear deterrence and potentially participate in French nuclear training exercises.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz reports having “initial talks” with Macron regarding nuclear deterrence and has publicly speculated about German Air Force aircraft possibly carrying French nuclear weapons.

European nations engaging with France seek “a second life insurance” against any possibility of losing US nuclear protection, explains Etienne Marcuz, a French nuclear defense expert at the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research think tank.

“The United States are unpredictable — have become unpredictable — because of the Trump 2 administration,” he said. “That has legitimately raised the question of whether the United States would truly be prepared to protect Europe, and above all, whether they would be willing to deploy their nuclear forces in defense of Europe.”