Gas Prices Soar 30% Since Middle East Conflict Started, Near $4 Per Gallon

Gasoline costs across America have climbed more than 30% this month as Middle East tensions drive crude oil prices higher. The national average reached $3.88 per gallon Thursday, with analysts predicting prices will cross the $4 threshold next week.

Drivers nationwide are feeling the pinch at gas stations as fuel costs have skyrocketed more than 30% throughout March, approaching the $4 per gallon mark despite President Donald Trump’s efforts to address supply chain disruptions linked to ongoing Middle East conflicts.

The nationwide average for regular gasoline has risen approximately 90 cents per gallon since late February when the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran, according to American Automobile Association data. Thursday’s average price hit $3.88 per gallon.

Energy market experts anticipate further increases as crude oil costs continue their upward trajectory. West Texas Intermediate crude futures have surged nearly $30 per barrel, representing a 43% jump from $67.02 to $96.14 during the same timeframe.

GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan posted on X that “It now looks like gasoline will hit $4/gal next week and could head toward $4.10/gal and beyond.”

Reaching the $4 per gallon threshold, last seen in August 2022, will add financial stress to Americans already dealing with broader inflationary pressures. Rising fuel costs present a significant political challenge for Trump and Republican lawmakers facing upcoming November midterm elections where they’re defending narrow congressional majorities.

The president had promised to reduce energy costs and boost domestic oil and gas output. However, his second term has been characterized by market instability, policy changes including tariffs, and international tensions.

Military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran have restricted oil supplies from a crucial global production region, with Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz hampering Middle Eastern export operations.

Gasoline prices at retail locations have climbed alongside crude oil costs due to higher raw material expenses.

The Trump administration this week approved a temporary 60-day suspension of Jones Act shipping regulations, permitting foreign vessels to transport fuel, fertilizer and other commodities between American ports. Industry experts believe this measure will provide minimal relief from price increases.

An unnamed fuel trading professional explained that “Oil prices are set independently of transportation costs. The waiver will only allow additional ships to carry supplies.” The source added, “I don’t think it will dramatically lower prices.”

De Haan cautioned that “Motorists hoping for a plummet at the pump from the Jones Act waiver are probably going to be disappointed.”

Officials are also expected to announce temporary suspension of summer gasoline standards, which would remove federal environmental requirements for summer-grade fuel blends.

According to De Haan, this regulatory waiver could reduce retail gasoline prices by 10 to 20 cents per gallon, with the greatest savings likely in metropolitan areas like Chicago, New York and Washington, D.C., where reformulated gasoline is mandated.