Goldman Sachs Boosts Oil Price Predictions for Late 2026

Investment giant Goldman Sachs has increased its oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026, raising Brent crude predictions by $6 to $60 per barrel. The revision comes as petroleum stockpiles in developed nations remain lower than expected, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Investment banking powerhouse Goldman Sachs has bumped up its petroleum price predictions for the final quarter of 2026, increasing its Brent crude estimate by $6 to reach $60 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate to $56 per barrel. The financial firm attributes this adjustment to reduced petroleum reserves among developed nations, while still factoring in no supply interruptions from Iran and maintaining expectations of an oil surplus throughout the current year.

The bank has also revised its annual projections upward, now anticipating Brent crude will reach an average of $64 per barrel for the year, a significant jump from its previous $56 estimate. Similarly, WTI is expected to average $60 annually, up from the earlier $52 prediction.

Monday saw petroleum prices drop approximately 1% as the United States and Iran gear up for their third series of nuclear negotiations, which has helped calm concerns about potential conflict escalation.

Current market activity shows Brent crude futures hovering near $71 per barrel at 0641 GMT, with U.S. WTI crude futures positioned at $65.75 per barrel.

In their weekend analysis, Goldman explained that their $60 Brent projection accounts for a gradual reduction of an estimated $6 risk premium, anticipating that geopolitical stress will diminish, along with a $5 decrease in fair value pricing due to increasing inventories within Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development nations.

The financial institution continues to project a 2026 surplus of 2.3 million barrels daily, operating under assumptions that exclude major supply interruptions and ongoing Russia-Ukraine tensions.

Goldman noted that their surplus projection incorporates mutual 0.2 million barrel per day reductions in both supply and demand forecasts, reflecting somewhat weaker economic expansion across Asia.

The bank has lowered its 2026 production expectations for Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Iran, and Iraq following actual output shortfalls, while simultaneously raising supply projections for Americas-based production and key OPEC nations with available capacity.

Goldman anticipates that OPEC+ will start implementing gradual production increases during 2026’s second quarter, considering that OECD petroleum reserves haven’t accumulated as expected.

However, the bank warns of potential downside risks of $5 for Brent and $8 for WTI in late 2026 should sanctions relief for Iran or Russia accelerate inventory accumulation and release additional long-term supply capacity.

Looking ahead to 2027, Goldman projects Brent and WTI will average $65 and $61 respectively, with prices climbing to $70 and $66 by December 2027, supported by strong demand and decelerating supply expansion.