Intelligence Report Warned Iran Military Action Unlikely to Topple Government

A classified U.S. intelligence report completed in February warned that military strikes against Iran would not result in regime change, even if current leaders were eliminated. The assessment has proven accurate as Iran's clerics selected a new hardline supreme leader following the recent conflict.

WASHINGTON — American intelligence officials concluded in a classified report that military action against Iran would fail to bring about a change in government, even if key leaders were eliminated, according to two sources with knowledge of the February assessment.

The National Intelligence Council’s analysis determined that both targeted airstrikes and extended military operations would be unlikely to install new leadership in the Islamic Republic, the sources revealed on condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the document.

This finding challenges the current administration’s claims that its goals in Iran could be achieved rapidly, possibly within weeks. Although officials have stated they are not pursuing regime change, President Donald Trump has openly discussed his preferred candidates to lead Iran.

According to those briefed on the report, intelligence analysts found no strong or unified opposition group ready to assume power should Iranian leadership be eliminated. The assessment predicted that Iran’s establishment would work to maintain governmental continuity if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed.

The intelligence community’s predictions have materialized, as Iranian religious authorities on Sunday selected Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader’s son, as the new supreme leader following his father’s death in the initial military strikes. The younger Khamenei is considered more extreme than his predecessor, signaling the regime’s defiance and unwillingness to surrender power easily.

The Washington Post and The New York Times previously reported details from this intelligence assessment.

Administration officials have offered varying explanations for the military campaign that commenced February 28, citing the need to disrupt Iran’s nuclear weapons development or prevent Iranian missile attacks. While Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth maintains the conflict does not aim for regime change, Trump has expressed his desire to see new Iranian leadership.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence did not respond to requests for comment Monday. Director Tulsi Gabbard previously dismissed the council’s acting leader last year following the publication of a declassified report that contradicted administration statements used to justify Venezuelan immigrant deportations.

Throughout his presidency, Trump has maintained deep suspicion toward U.S. intelligence agencies, regularly rejecting their conclusions as politically driven or part of efforts by a “deep state” to sabotage his administration.