Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Threatens to Tear Lebanon Apart

The ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah is pushing Lebanon's fragile government and society to the breaking point. Over one million people have been displaced, creating dangerous tensions between religious communities as Shiite Muslims flee to Christian and other areas.

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is bringing Lebanon’s vulnerable government and society dangerously close to collapse, creating dangerous rifts along religious and political lines as Shiite Muslims are forced from their homes and hostility grows between the Iran-supported organization and its critics.

Political analysts and leaders from various Lebanese factions believe this renewed fighting, sparked by the broader Iran conflict, may represent the most destabilizing crisis the country has faced since its devastating 1975-90 civil war.

Israel has made threats of Gaza-style devastation and southern occupation, while bitter disagreements persist within Lebanon regarding Hezbollah’s weapons stockpile, which the organization has refused to surrender despite a year-long governmental effort to disarm them through peaceful means.

Israeli bombing campaigns and evacuation orders have forced Hezbollah’s Shiite supporters into Christian, Druze and other communities, where many residents hold the group responsible for initiating warfare to support Tehran just 15 months after the previous conflict ended.

Municipal officials are now screening displaced individuals looking for rental housing, concerned about housing anyone who might become an Israeli target.

Relations between Hezbollah and the government continue deteriorating. The administration under Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun has prohibited Hezbollah’s armed branch, requested negotiations with Israel and ordered Iran’s ambassador to depart.

Hezbollah representative Mahmoud Qmati has drawn comparisons between the government and Vichy France officials who received death sentences for Nazi collaboration during World War Two.

“We are capable of turning the country upside down,” he stated to Lebanese media, though he subsequently claimed his comments were misinterpreted.

Druze parliament member Wael Abu Faour indicates that internal pressures are mounting due to political disagreements over the conflict and population displacement, along with “the defiant rhetoric from more than one side.”

“This exacerbates fears for internal stability,” he stated.

‘TICKING BOMB’

Since Hezbollah launched attacks against Israel on March 2 and Israel responded, more than 1,000 Lebanese have died and over one million people – representing more than 20 percent of the nation’s population – have been forced to relocate, with most being Shiite Muslims.

A foreign diplomat described the displacement as putting stress on community relationships and warned it would become “a ticking bomb” if the displaced cannot return home.

Israeli military forces have ordered evacuations from large portions of southern Lebanon, Beirut’s Hezbollah-dominated southern neighborhoods, and the group’s strongholds in eastern regions.

Israel’s defense minister has announced plans to establish a “security zone” extending to the Litani River, which reaches the Mediterranean approximately 30 kilometers north of the Israeli border. He stated that hundreds of thousands of Shiites will not be permitted to return south of the Litani until northern Israel’s security is guaranteed.

Nadim Gemayel, a Christian legislator who opposes Hezbollah, voiced worries that Israel is intentionally driving Shiites into other Lebanese regions to spark conflicts with different communities.

Hezbollah has maintained longstanding disputes with numerous other Lebanese groups and possesses weaponry superior to the national army’s arsenal.

During a short civil conflict in 2008, when a Western-supported government attempted to ban Hezbollah’s communication systems, Hezbollah fighters seized control of Beirut. The government subsequently withdrew its demands.

Gemayel noted that tension “already exists, but the ignition hasn’t happened yet, and I hope that it will never happen.”

“If the Israelis stay long, very long in the south, this will be catastrophic for everyone … Lebanon cannot assimilate such a displacement of people,” he stated, calling on the Lebanese government to “disarm Hezbollah and terminate this war.”

When asked to respond to accusations that Israel seeks to inflame sectarian tensions, an Israeli official avoided directly addressing the claim but stated that Hezbollah initiated the only conflict in Lebanon and encouraged the country to remove the group.

The Israeli military stated it operates exclusively against Hezbollah, calling any claims it targets specific populations “false and misleading.”

However, an Israeli military representative informed Reuters that evacuation warnings had been sent only to Shiite villages in southern Lebanon, while Christian villages remain inhabited and are not targeted by Israeli forces.

‘SECTARIAN LOGIC’

Hezbollah parliament member Hassan Fadlallah accused some Lebanese of approaching the displacement issue “with sectarian logic.”

“We will overcome this phase because the displaced will return to their land and their homes as soon as the aggression ceases,” he declared.

Highlighting existing tensions, residents of a mainly Christian area north of Beirut fought with displaced people and demanded their departure on Tuesday when pieces of an intercepted Iranian ballistic missile fell on the area.

Attempts to create a shelter for displaced individuals in Beirut’s Karantina district, located in a predominantly Christian area near the port, drew objections from Christian political leaders. Salam later ordered the location be used for aid storage instead.

In the primarily Christian Dekwaneh neighborhood east of Beirut, approximately 2,000 displaced Shiites are taking shelter in a vocational school.

Zeinab al-Meqdad, 50, reported her family has faced no difficulties in the neighborhood since leaving her home in the southern suburbs on March 2.

Antoine Abu Aboud, a community official, said an additional 1,000 displaced people are staying in hotels and rental properties in Dekwaneh.

“There is a war, and the situation is bigger than us. Today, we Lebanese must be patient with one another,” he remarked.

He explained that the local council has intensified screening of rental applicants, forwarding identification documents to security agencies for verification, as residents worry about anyone who might “represent a danger to their building or lives.”

COEXISTENCE BETWEEN STATE AND HEZBOLLAH ARMS ENDING?

Social divisions within Lebanese society are reflected in governmental structures, which have also been disrupted by the war’s consequences.

Hezbollah maintained significant influence over the state until suffering heavy losses from Israeli attacks in 2024. Following that conflict, the government attempted to disarm the group, but the numerous rockets launched by Hezbollah since March 2, along with its quick redeployment of fighters to the south, have undermined confidence in the state domestically and internationally.

Hezbollah expects the government will eventually reverse its decisions, including the prohibition of its military operations.

“All the measures taken by the government will be reversed when Israel fails to achieve its objectives,” Fadlallah stated. “When we finish confronting this aggression, we, as Lebanese, will address our internal problems.”

Israeli officials have suggested Israel’s military campaign will extend beyond the Iran conflict, with much depending on developments in the broader regional war.

A 15-point American proposal for ending the conflict includes Iran discontinuing financial support for allies like Hezbollah, according to Israeli cabinet sources. Iran has suggested that Lebanon must be part of any ceasefire agreement.

Christian legislator Alain Aoun described Lebanon as being in a transitional period, with final outcomes to be decided by the war’s results.

“The coexistence between the state and Hezbollah arms which we witnessed for decades is nearing its end in one way or another, with all the potential repercussions for society and the political system,” he stated.