Israeli Refinery Called ‘Ticking Time Bomb’ After Iran Missile Near-Miss

A climate expert warns that Israel's largest oil refinery remains extremely dangerous despite escaping major damage from Iranian missiles. The Haifa facility sits near dense neighborhoods and could cause mass evacuations if hit directly.

A Tel Aviv University professor is calling Israel’s largest oil refinery a “ticking time bomb” following a recent Iranian missile attack that narrowly avoided causing a catastrophic disaster.

While the Bazan refinery in Haifa Bay escaped serious damage during the strike, Marcelo Sternberg, a climate change ecology professor at Tel Aviv University’s School of Plant Sciences and Food Security, says the close call should serve as a wake-up call rather than cause for relief.

“It’s actually a time bomb,” Sternberg told The Media Line, emphasizing that the real threat comes from what could have happened during the attack.

The refinery’s location in a heavily populated area near Haifa has drawn criticism for years, even before the current conflict began. Sternberg noted that the facility sits dangerously close to residential neighborhoods, creating a volatile situation.

“This type of oil refinery in a highly populated, dense area close to the city of Haifa,” he explained, has faced opposition long before wartime conditions made the risks even more apparent. “There have been a lot of claims before the war against the position of this refinery… because it’s located very close to highly populated neighborhoods.”

The environmental expert stressed that while this particular attack resulted in minimal damage, the ongoing daily operations already pose significant health risks to nearby residents through air pollution. He described the current contamination levels as “very, very high” from normal refinery operations.

Sternberg compared the unpredictable nature of missile attacks to a deadly game of chance. “It’s like Russian roulette,” he said. “You don’t know exactly where the missile will fall and if the missiles will be able to fully repel the attack or not.”

The professor warned that a direct strike on critical refinery components could trigger devastating consequences far beyond the initial impact. He pointed to attacks on refineries in other locations as examples of how quickly situations can spiral out of control.

“Definitely the damage and the potential of explosions that we see in other places where the refineries were attacked,” could escalate rapidly, he explained. “Not only the fire, but the explosion and the release of heavy smoke and all the additional elements that are contained in that smoke are highly, highly toxic, and they can produce the death of people.”

Despite only one person being injured in the recent attack, Sternberg emphasized this was purely fortunate timing rather than effective protection. “It was very, very lucky that it did not happen in a wider case,” he said.

The geographic challenges facing the facility add another layer of concern, with Haifa positioned within striking distance of multiple hostile forces, particularly from northern borders. Sternberg described the overall security situation as “very, very risky.”

Local officials and residents have been pushing for years to relocate the industrial complex away from populated areas. “The general public, and even the mayor of Haifa, is claiming… to move this plant to another place, south of Israel,” Sternberg said, referencing proposals to shift heavy industry to less populated regions like the Negev desert.

Should a major strike occur, the consequences for local residents could be severe and immediate. Sternberg warned that mass evacuations would likely become necessary to protect people from toxic gas releases.

“If there is a major impact, definitely a vast part of the population will need to be evacuated,” he predicted, citing the dangers posed by poisonous gases released when petroleum products and chemical byproducts explode. “This will lead to major movement of people being evacuated to major areas.”

The professor expressed frustration with what he sees as government inaction on addressing these long-standing safety concerns. “This is something that people have been claiming a lot, but the government is not interested, unfortunately,” he said. “The issues about the environment are not on the agenda of this government.”

Beyond environmental and safety concerns, the refinery’s strategic importance to Israel’s fuel supply creates additional vulnerabilities. The Bazan facility handles a dominant portion of the country’s refining capacity, making any disruption potentially significant for fuel availability.

“It will definitely affect petrol,” Sternberg warned, arguing that government planning focuses too heavily on immediate concerns rather than long-term strategic risks. “The government is looking only at the short term and not really planning for what may happen.”

He suggested that distributing refining capacity across multiple smaller facilities could reduce the current single-point-of-failure risk. “How can we make small areas or small distillation plants?” he asked, noting this critical question has not received adequate attention from policymakers.

Sternberg also criticized what he sees as misplaced priorities in government planning and the influence of powerful private interests in maintaining the current arrangement. “The priorities are not there,” he said regarding environmental planning and risk reduction efforts.

He referenced the strong political influence of the family that owns the petrochemical facility, suggesting their lobbying power has helped prevent structural changes that could improve safety.

As the refinery continues operating under ongoing security threats, Sternberg warned that avoiding catastrophe may depend more on luck than proper planning and preparation.