Italian PM Meloni Faces Critical Judicial Reform Vote This Weekend

Italy's conservative Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni confronts a crucial political challenge as voters decide on controversial judicial reforms in a two-day referendum starting Sunday. What began as a technical justice system overhaul has evolved into a broader test of Meloni's leadership, with recent polling showing a tight race that could impact her standing both domestically and internationally.

ROME (AP) — A weekend referendum on judicial reforms has become a defining political moment for Italy’s conservative Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, with the two-day vote beginning Sunday serving as a broader evaluation of her leadership both within Italy and on the international stage.

What was initially framed as a technical adjustment to the country’s justice system has deepened political rifts and brought together center-left opposition parties, creating a symbolic battle over Meloni’s political power just one year before national elections are scheduled.

Current polling data indicates an extremely tight contest, with opponents of the reform building momentum in recent weeks amid a deeply divided political atmosphere where voter participation could determine the outcome.

Political analyst and polling specialist Lorenzo Pregliasco from YouTrend explained that defeating the reform would have major political consequences.

“A possible ‘No’ victory would send a political signal, weakening Meloni’s aura of invincibility, while pushing the center-left opposition to say that there is already an alternative in the country,” he told The Associated Press.

Initially, Meloni was cautious about connecting her political reputation too closely with the referendum outcome, recognizing that a loss could damage her position both at home and internationally.

She leads what has been Italy’s most stable administration in recent years, having earned respect among European partners as an effective leader. A successful referendum would bolster her domestic position while enhancing her global influence.

However, as voting approached and surveys showed a narrowing gap, the Italian leader changed course and threw her full support behind the “Yes” campaign.

Meloni has intensified her messaging, claiming that certain judicial elements are obstructing government efforts on immigration and public safety, and cautioning that rejecting the reform would empower unaccountable judicial “factions” while compromising public security.

“If the reform doesn’t pass this time, we will probably not have another chance,” she said at a campaign event last week. “We will find ourselves with even more powerful factions, even more negligent judges, even more surreal sentences, immigrants, rapists, pedophiles, drug dealers being freed and putting your security at risk.”

These forceful statements have prompted sharp backlash from judicial officials and center-left politicians, who contend that the proposed changes would compromise judicial independence and weaken constitutional protections.

Political observers note the referendum also carries consequences beyond Italy’s borders.

Meloni’s historical alliance with U.S. President Donald Trump, previously seen as politically beneficial, has become increasingly challenging as his foreign policy approach — especially regarding the U.S. and Israeli conflict with Iran — faces mounting criticism among Italian citizens.

“Meloni is facing what I would call the ‘Trump risk’ — which is appearing too subservient to the U.S. president, who is an extremely unpopular political leader in Italy and the rest of Europe and generates a lot of distrust, even among center-right voters,” Pregliasco said.

While a referendum defeat would not require Meloni to step down — her term extends through 2027 and she has consistently promised to serve it fully — it could weaken her influence within the European Union, where she is regarded as a stabilizing presence in a frequently unstable political landscape.

The referendum focuses on extensively discussed reforms designed to restructure Italy’s judicial framework.

One significant provision would create separate career tracks for judges and prosecutors, prohibiting them from changing positions — a practice currently permitted but seldom used.

Another substantial modification involves the High Judicial Council, the body responsible for magistrate appointments and disciplinary actions. The reform would divide it into three distinct chambers and modify the member selection process, replacing internal voting with random selection from qualified judges and prosecutors.

Tensions between Italy’s conservative leadership and the judiciary have been a recurring theme in Italian politics, reaching peak intensity during the administrations of the late conservative leader Silvio Berlusconi, who was among the strongest advocates for judicial reform.

Reform advocates maintain the changes will modernize a notoriously sluggish court system and improve oversight. However, opponents, including respected magistrates, argue the reform ignores genuine priorities while jeopardizing judicial independence.

Nicola Gratteri, Naples’ chief prosecutor and veteran anti-Mafia magistrate, delivered one of the sharpest criticisms.

“I don’t think this government has implemented the reforms needed to make trials work more effectively,” he told the AP. “Instead, it has made it virtually impossible to combat crimes against the public administration and to tackle white-collar abuse and corruption.”

As Italian citizens prepare to cast their ballots, this referendum represents a pivotal moment in Meloni’s leadership — a decision that could transform not only the justice system but also her government’s future direction, whatever the result may be.