Key Players Shape Cuba’s Future as US-Cuba Negotiations Continue

Cuba and the United States are conducting high-stakes bilateral discussions amid mounting tensions and economic pressure. Several influential figures on both sides are determining the direction of these talks that could reshape Cuba's political landscape.

HAVANA – The island nation of Cuba finds itself at a crossroads as high-level discussions with the United States unfold during a period of escalating tensions. Former President Donald Trump’s administration had implemented what amounts to an oil embargo, creating additional economic strain that has pushed the Communist leadership toward diplomatic engagement.

Cuban leader Miguel Diaz-Canel has emphasized that any negotiations must occur “on the basis of equality” with mutual respect between the nations. However, Trump has made aggressive statements about Cuba, declaring he could do “anything I want” regarding the sovereign Caribbean nation.

Despite the harsh rhetoric, sources within the Trump administration have suggested to news outlets that some form of agreement might be possible. According to The New York Times, which spoke with four individuals knowledgeable about the discussions, Washington’s goal involves removing Diaz-Canel from his leadership position. In return, the United States might reduce economic sanctions while avoiding action against the Castro family members.

Several key individuals hold significant influence over how these negotiations proceed and what Cuba’s future might look like.

FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP

Trump has made increasingly aggressive statements in recent weeks, saying he anticipated having the “honor” of “taking Cuba.” Following military action against Iran, he stated, “We’re talking to Cuba, but we’re going to do Iran before Cuba.”

However, with American military forces occupied in Iran, the commanding general responsible for U.S. operations in Latin America informed senators that the military is not conducting invasion rehearsals or actively planning to seize control of the island nation.

Reports from The Times and USA Today suggest the American strategy would mirror recent events in Venezuela, where the United States removed President Nicolas Maduro on January 3rd. Instead of installing opposition leadership, Trump has worked with acting President Delcy Rodriguez, who was Maduro’s former vice president and assumed control after U.S. forces removed Maduro during an early-morning operation.

SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO

Trump has designated Rubio, a Cuban American serving as both Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, to head the discussions with Cuban officials.

The Miami-born Rubio, considered a potential 2028 presidential candidate, grew up immersed in Cuban exile culture, which has historically opposed the Cuban revolution. Any agreement that allows the Communist Party to remain in control without consequences for the Castros could face criticism from South Florida’s Cuban American community.

However, if Rubio’s strategy involves overthrowing Cuba’s government, it risks triggering violence and potentially massive migration. Additionally, Cuba currently assists in anti-drug trafficking efforts. A sudden collapse of Cuban governance could create opportunities for criminal organizations along the country’s 3,570 miles of coastline, located just 90 miles from American shores.

RAUL CASTRO

At 94 years old, Raul Castro participated in the revolutionary struggle alongside his elder brother Fidel, helping overthrow a U.S.-backed government in 1959. He served as Fidel’s trusted defense minister for many years before becoming president, initially on an interim basis when Fidel fell ill in 2006, then permanently when Fidel stepped down in 2008. Following Fidel’s 2016 death, Raul became the primary unifying figure for revolution supporters.

Despite leaving the presidency in 2018 and Communist Party leadership in 2021, he maintains considerable influence, now holding the honorary title of army general.

When Diaz-Canel informed the nation about entering talks with the United States, he indicated that Castro was co-leading the effort. Diaz-Canel has frequently mentioned Castro’s ongoing involvement in governmental affairs.

In December 2025, as the Communist Party prepared to select Diaz-Canel’s replacement at this year’s crucial party congress, Castro recommended indefinitely postponing the gathering due to Cuba’s economic difficulties. Demonstrating his continued authority, the party’s Central Committee unanimously accepted his suggestion.

MIGUEL DIAZ-CANEL

Cuba’s current president and Communist Party leader became the first non-Castro to govern the country since 1959 when he took office in 2018.

His tenure began with significant challenges, including Trump’s rise to power, which reversed the diplomatic warming between Cuba and the United States that President Barack Obama had established.

The 2020 coronavirus pandemic then devastated Cuba’s crucial tourism sector while the government had invested billions in new hotels that now sit largely empty.

Diaz-Canel’s reputation suffered most severely from his handling of widespread popular demonstrations.

When Cubans spontaneously protested nationwide on July 11, 2021, creating the most significant challenge to Communist rule in decades, security forces swiftly suppressed the uprising after Diaz-Canel called on government supporters to confront demonstrators.

“The combat order has been given!” declared the 65-year-old leader.

The subsequent crackdown, combined with worsening economic conditions, has damaged Diaz-Canel’s standing.

Any Cuban surrender – particularly one requiring Diaz-Canel to step down with two years remaining as president and five years left as party leader – would be without precedent.

RAUL GUILLERMO RODRIGUEZ CASTRO

Rodriguez Castro, 41, nicknamed “El Cangrejo” or “The Crab,” is considered among his grandfather Raul Castro’s closest advisors. As his grandfather’s former bodyguard, he frequently accompanied him throughout his presidency and reportedly holds the rank of lieutenant colonel.

Cuban officials did not respond to inquiries about Rodriguez Castro’s background or potential negotiating role.

Axios reported on February 18, citing three unnamed sources, that Rodriguez Castro was conducting secret discussions with Rubio. The Miami Herald reported on February 26, also using unnamed sources, that Rubio associates met with Rodriguez Castro during a Caribbean Community conference in St. Kitts and Nevis.

Rodriguez Castro is the child of Raul’s daughter Deborah Castro Espin and the deceased General Luis Alberto Rodriguez Lopez-Calleja, who headed the military business empire GAESA.

Under Raul Castro’s leadership, GAESA gained control over the state’s most significant enterprises, including hospitality, banking, transportation, and retail sectors. Rodriguez Lopez-Calleja died from a heart attack in 2022 at 62. Reports indicate Rodriguez Castro may have assumed responsibilities within his late father’s business operations.

This family background positions Rodriguez Castro where Cuba’s political power intersects with its most influential economic institution, potentially making him a valuable intermediary for Washington.

Rodriguez Castro has never made public statements or granted interviews.

MANUEL MARRERO

Appointed prime minister by Diaz-Canel in 2019 and confirmed by the National Assembly, Marrero joined the Politburo, the Communist Party’s governing elite, in 2021, placing him among potential successors to Diaz-Canel.

The former architectural engineer, now 62, served as tourism minister from 2004 to 2019.

According to EcuRed, Cuba’s official online reference source, Marrero previously led Grupo Gaviota, GAESA’s tourism division, where he oversaw the construction of two resort properties.

OSCAR PEREZ-OLIVA FRAGA

Considered an emerging leader due to his expanding responsibilities since becoming foreign trade minister in 2024, he has since gained the positions of deputy prime minister and National Assembly member in 2025.

His family connection to the Castro brothers – his maternal grandmother Angela Castro was Fidel and Raul Castro’s sister – provides him with Castro family credibility without the burden of carrying their surname.

When Cuba introduced an investment program targeting Cuban nationals living overseas, Perez-Oliva Fraga received extensive television coverage on state-controlled media to present the initiative.

Political observers have suggested that Perez-Oliva Fraga might fulfill a function similar to Delcy Rodriguez’s role in Venezuela.