Labour Party Faces Historic Challenge in Manchester By-Election

Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party confronts potential defeat in a longtime stronghold as voters in Manchester's Gorton and Denton constituency consider Green and Reform UK alternatives. The Thursday by-election could mark the first time in nearly a century that Labour loses this seat, signaling broader troubles for Starmer's government.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party faces a potential historic upset in Manchester, where a constituency that has backed Labour politicians for nearly a century might break tradition in Thursday’s special election.

The Gorton and Denton constituency in northwest England will choose a new member of parliament after current MP Andrew Gwynne announced his resignation last month. This merged district combines two areas with deep Labour roots – Gorton has elected Labour representatives for almost 100 years, while Denton has done so since World War Two.

Despite Labour’s commanding victory in July 2024’s general election, when the party captured just over 50% of votes in this seat, current polling suggests a dramatically different outcome this time around.

The political landscape has shifted dramatically, with Labour hemorrhaging support in opposite directions. Younger, diverse voters in Manchester’s inner western suburbs are gravitating toward the Green Party, while older, white working-class residents in eastern Denton are considering Reform UK.

Dave Ward, a 59-year-old retired firefighter from Denton, exemplifies this shift. “I’ve always been a staunch Labour voter,” Ward explained. “But now I’m giving Reform a chance. Labour have let us down. They’ve made promises after promises. U-turn after U-turn.”

The constituency encompasses some of Manchester’s most economically disadvantaged neighborhoods, highlighting the challenges facing Britain’s second-largest city after London.

Starmer’s difficulties have intensified due to policy reversals, declining approval ratings, and recent controversy surrounding Peter Mandelson, his chosen U.S. ambassador, who faces allegations of sharing government secrets with deceased sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Mandelson has denied any misconduct.

A recent Omnisis poll released Friday shows the Green Party holding a slight edge over Reform UK, with Labour trailing closely behind – results that align with betting market predictions.

Financial markets are monitoring the situation closely, as British government bonds have shown volatility during periods of uncertainty about Starmer’s political stability. Bond investors express concern that a Labour leadership change could push policies leftward and increase government borrowing.

The Green Party, under new leadership from Zack Polanski, has attracted former Labour supporters disappointed by the party’s moderate approach after 14 years of Conservative governance.

In Levenshulme, a neighborhood with a substantial Muslim population, Green Party campaign signs are prominently displayed on numerous homes.

Josie, a 37-year-old educator who preferred not to share her surname, represents this demographic shift. “I’ll be voting Green this time around,” she stated. “I’m a former Labour member, but… I don’t think they can win round here anymore,” citing disagreements with Starmer’s Gaza policy and the Mandelson controversy.

Labour’s decision to prevent popular Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from seeking the nomination may have damaged the party’s prospects further. While officials justified this move as avoiding an expensive mayoral election, critics viewed it as blocking a potential leadership rival from entering parliament.

Sue Ashton, a 75-year-old lifelong Labour supporter from Gorton, criticized Starmer for throwing Labour “under the bus” by excluding Burnham from candidacy consideration.

“I’ve got to keep Reform out. It’s the only reason I’m voting Labour this time. I would have gone Green, but… it’s too much of a risk,” Ashton explained.

Green candidate Hannah Spencer, a local councillor and plumber, launched her campaign headquarters to enthusiastic reception from approximately 90 volunteers.

“I think people now are just ready for change,” the 34-year-old Spencer told reporters. “It is between us and Reform.”

Spencer believes her party’s message can appeal to working-class Denton voters, noting “we’re not all one group that thinks and acts the same way.”

Reform UK, the right-wing populist movement led by Brexit advocate Nigel Farage, poses the primary national threat to Labour’s government. Though holding few parliamentary seats, Reform consistently leads in national polling.

At Reform’s campaign base in a Denton warehouse, volunteers worked at computer stations beneath illuminated displays featuring Farage and candidate Matt Goodwin.

“It will probably go to the wire but we’ve got overwhelming support in large parts of the seat,” said Goodwin, a 44-year-old former academic turned media commentator.

When asked about appealing to the constituency’s more diverse western areas, Goodwin, who argues mass migration threatens British cultural identity, insisted the campaign had “nothing to do with race, ethnicity and religion.”

“If you contribute, if you play by the rules, if you’re part of the hard-working majority, then you should be voting Reform,” Goodwin declared.

Both Green and Labour candidates have condemned Reform’s approach as divisive, though they disagree on the best strategy to defeat it.

“This is a choice between Labour and Reform,” Labour candidate Angeliki Stogia said after meeting with pensioners at a community center. “The Greens say a lot but they deliver very, very little.”

Rob Ford, a politics professor at the University of Manchester, warned that a Labour defeat would constitute a “disaster” for Starmer, who recently weathered a leadership challenge that could resurface after May’s local elections.

Ford characterized the situation as “not typical mid-term blues, but signs of an existential crisis.”