Major Winter Storm Becoming Likely Across Southern Delmarva; Blizzard Conditions Possible

A rapidly intensifying coastal storm is expected to develop off the East Coast this weekend, and while confidence in exact impacts remains limited, portions of the Delmarva Peninsula could see effects ranging from snowfall and strong winds to coastal flooding. Forecast guidance continues to show cyclogenesis beginning Saturday off the southeastern United States coast. As […]

A rapidly intensifying coastal storm is expected to develop off the East Coast this weekend, and while confidence in exact impacts remains limited, portions of the Delmarva Peninsula could see effects ranging from snowfall and strong winds to coastal flooding.

Forecast guidance continues to show cyclogenesis beginning Saturday off the southeastern United States coast. As low pressure rapidly deepens, the system is expected to track north and east Saturday night into Sunday. This development is being driven by a potent upper-level disturbance rotating around the base of a longwave trough over the eastern United States, interacting with a sharp temperature contrast along the coast.

For Delmarva, impacts will depend heavily on the exact track of the storm, which remains uncertain. Current guidance places much of the region on the northwest fringe of the precipitation shield. Small shifts in the storm’s path could make the difference between limited impacts and a more impactful winter weather event, particularly for southern and coastal Delaware.

Among the latest forecast models, solutions remain mixed. Some guidance continues to suggest light snowfall for parts of Delaware, while others are more suppressed and keep meaningful precipitation offshore. At this time, forecast confidence supports the possibility of light to moderate snow accumulations in southern Delaware, with lesser amounts farther north. Additional snow could fall beyond early Sunday depending on how quickly the system departs.

Snowfall probabilities remain highest closer to the coast. Current probabilistic guidance shows a 60 to 70 percent chance for more than 2 inches of snow near coastal areas, decreasing to 25 to 35 percent near the I-95 corridor. The probability of 6 inches or more remains lower, but remains notable near the coast where probabilities range from 35 to 50 percent.

Regardless of snowfall totals, confidence is increasing that strong winds will affect the region Saturday night into Sunday. Northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to increase inland to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Along the coast, winds could reach 25 to 35 mph with gusts approaching 50 mph. If the storm tracks closer to the coast, winds could be stronger than currently forecast.

Given the combination of strong winds and falling or blowing snow, there is a conditional risk for blizzard conditions in portions of southern Delmarva, especially near coastal areas. While confidence is not yet high enough for blizzard headlines, blizzard warnings could become necessary if the storm track shifts closer and snowfall rates increase alongside the strongest winds.

Strong onshore winds will also increase the risk for coastal flooding, particularly during times of high tide. This threat is further heightened by the presence of a full moon, which will result in astronomical high tides. If strong northeasterly winds persist during peak tidal cycles, water levels could rise more quickly and lead to minor to locally moderate coastal flooding in vulnerable coastal communities.

Temperatures throughout the event will be well below freezing, strongly favoring all snow across Delmarva should precipitation occur. Any snowfall that does develop would accumulate efficiently on untreated roads and elevated surfaces.

The storm is expected to pull rapidly away to the northeast by Sunday evening, allowing quieter but cold conditions to return for the start of the new week.

Overall, this remains a challenging forecast. While many model solutions currently suggest a near miss for Delmarva, even a subtle shift in the storm track could bring more substantial impacts. Residents are encouraged to stay informed, review winter weather safety plans, and monitor future forecasts as confidence improves over the coming days.