Middle East Experts: Iran’s Gulf Attacks Could Spark Broader Coalition War

Regional analysts warn that Iran's recent missile strikes against Gulf nations may backfire by pushing these countries into a stronger alliance with the United States. The attacks have prompted Gulf states to consider more aggressive defensive measures and could escalate into a wider regional conflict.

DUBAI – Middle East experts are warning that Iran’s recent missile attacks on Gulf nations could backfire dramatically, potentially driving these countries into a stronger military alliance with the United States and expanding the current conflict.

Regional analysts suggest that Tehran’s decision to target economic centers, ports, and energy facilities across Gulf states may have been a strategic miscalculation that could unite these nations against Iran rather than pressure them to influence U.S. policy.

The missile strikes hit six different Gulf countries, all of which maintain military partnerships with Washington and house American forces on their territory. Iran’s apparent goal was to compel these nations to pressure President Trump into ending military operations, but experts believe the strategy has had the opposite effect.

Abdulaziz Sager, who leads the Gulf Research Center think tank based in Saudi Arabia, explained the difficult position these nations now face. “The Gulf states now face stark choices: to join the United States more openly in its war effort — allowing their skies and territory to be used and potentially participating in military operations — or risk further escalation on their own soil,” Sager told Reuters.

According to Sager, the possibility of remaining neutral disappeared when Iranian rockets began striking their territory, “forced us to be their enemies,” and pushed previously cautious governments toward open cooperation with Washington and active defense of their interests.

The crisis escalated following the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Saturday, which occurred during the initial phase of U.S. and Israeli military operations that Trump described as necessary to address security threats and prevent Iranian nuclear weapons development.

In response to the Iranian assault, the Gulf Cooperation Council — comprising Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman — convened an urgent ministerial session on Sunday. The group invoked United Nations Charter Article 51, established clear boundaries, and indicated their willingness to engage in collective defense as energy disruptions and security concerns intensify.

The GCC delivered a clear message to Tehran that the Iranian offensive had actually strengthened cooperation among Gulf nations. The council warned that continued attacks risked converting the Gulf region from a defensive position into an “active theatre of response,” and member states have now coordinated joint air-defense networks and surveillance operations throughout regional airspace.

Regional experts describe the situation as presenting a harsh choice: retaliate and risk broader warfare, or remain passive while accepting deteriorating security, economic damage, and diminished international standing under repeated attacks.

Gulf leadership has communicated warnings to Tehran through various channels, both direct and indirect, indicating that additional attacks would result in significantly more severe consequences for Iran.

“Practically, they’re going to try and wait as much as possible. The Americans are hitting them and the Israelis are hitting them,” said one Gulf insider.

This source noted uncertainty about Iran’s current command structure — whether the strikes on energy infrastructure were centrally authorized or conducted by independent units. Two possibilities are emerging: either military command has broken down with units operating independently, or strategic decisions remain centrally coordinated.

The implications extend well beyond the Gulf region, with global oil shipments, maritime routes, and energy infrastructure under threat, endangering a crucial energy corridor and creating worldwide economic repercussions.

International energy markets are experiencing one of their most serious disruptions in recent decades. Missile threats have forced temporary shutdowns at several Gulf energy installations, including Qatar’s liquefied natural gas facilities that supply approximately 20% of global demand, demonstrating the potential market impact.

Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, who heads the Emirates Policy Center, warned of broader international involvement if the crisis continues. “If the strikes continue at this pace, and the Gulf cannot withstand a prolonged conflict, disruption to oil shipping lanes or closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it would be natural for other countries to step in, because global interests would be directly affected,” Al-Ketbi told Reuters.

Mohammed Baharoon, who directs the Dubai Public Policy Research Center, argued that the case for expanding the anti-Iran coalition has been strengthened by the UAE’s classification of the Iranian strikes as terrorist acts.

“Iran is pushing the Gulf into an expanding coalition against it,” Baharoon stated. “By attacking Gulf states, Iran is turning them into enemies and risking a wider war no one wants.”

The targeting of Western-affiliated locations — including a British installation in Cyprus and facilities housing French personnel in Abu Dhabi — has raised the possibility of eventual NATO involvement in the conflict.

The UAE has sustained the heaviest Iranian assault, with 63% of strikes hitting its airports, ports, and petroleum infrastructure. Officials calculate that 165 ballistic and cruise missiles, plus 600 drones, were launched during the initial 48-hour period.

Weekend missile strikes on Doha, Dubai, and Manama also targeted these Gulf cities’ reputations as prosperous financial, investment, and tourism centers, damaging their image as secure and stable destinations.

Although the UAE seeks to prevent full-scale warfare, it has responded quickly through diplomatic means, summoning Iran’s ambassador, recalling its own representative, shuttering its Tehran embassy, and raising the matter at the U.N. Security Council.

Gulf officials indicate that Iran’s large-scale deployment of ballistic missiles and drones has fundamentally changed the diplomatic environment.

They argue that Tehran’s actions have complicated future U.S. negotiations by making it more difficult to treat Iran’s missile capabilities separately from its nuclear program — a perspective now reportedly shared by Sunni Gulf Arab neighbors and Western governments.