New Study: 155,000 COVID Deaths Went Uncounted in Pandemic’s First Two Years

Researchers using artificial intelligence found that approximately 155,000 COVID-19 deaths were not officially recorded in 2020 and 2021, representing about 16% of actual coronavirus fatalities. The study revealed that Hispanic people and other people of color were disproportionately represented among the uncounted deaths.

A groundbreaking research study has revealed that the coronavirus pandemic claimed significantly more lives than official records show during its first two years in the United States.

Researchers utilizing artificial intelligence technology determined that roughly 155,000 COVID-19 fatalities went unrecorded between 2020 and 2021, beyond the 840,000 deaths officially documented on death certificates during that period. This suggests approximately 16% of coronavirus deaths during those critical years were never officially counted.

The findings, released Wednesday in Science Advances journal, align closely with previous research on pandemic mortality rates. However, this new investigation went further by identifying specific patterns among the unreported deaths.

The study found that unrecorded fatalities disproportionately affected Hispanic individuals and other communities of color, particularly during the pandemic’s initial months. These deaths were concentrated in certain Southern and Southwestern states, including Alabama, Oklahoma, and South Carolina.

“People on the margins continue to die at disproportionate rates because they can’t access care,” explained Steven Woolf, a researcher at Virginia Commonwealth University who was not part of the study team.

University of Minnesota researcher Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, one of the study’s authors, noted that while hospitals consistently tested patients for COVID-19, many individuals who became ill and died at home or in other non-hospital settings never received testing. This was especially common early in the pandemic when home testing options were scarce or unavailable.

The research also highlighted problems with America’s death investigation system. In many regions, elected coroners without specialized medical training handle death investigations, unlike trained medical examiners. Some studies suggest political beliefs may have influenced whether families sought COVID-19 testing or whether coroners pursued posthumous coronavirus testing.

“Our antiquated death investigation system is one key reason why we fell short of accurate counts, particularly outside of big metropolitan areas,” stated Andrew Stokes from Boston University, the study’s lead author.

According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention records, more than 1.2 million Americans have died from COVID-19 since the pandemic began in early 2020, with over two-thirds of those deaths occurring in 2020 and 2021.

The death count has been a source of ongoing controversy, with false social media claims suggesting COVID-19 fatalities were exaggerated. Former President Donald Trump amplified these disputes in August 2020 by sharing a post claiming only 6% of reported deaths were actually caused by COVID-19, which Twitter subsequently removed.

The researchers acknowledged that the pandemic caused additional deaths beyond direct COVID-19 infections, including people who died from other conditions because hospitals were overwhelmed with coronavirus patients, and individuals who died from drug overdoses due to isolation and reduced access to treatment services.

However, Stokes and his team specifically focused on deaths directly caused by coronavirus infection. They employed machine learning technology to analyze death certificates of infected patients who died in hospitals, then applied those patterns to evaluate certificates of people who died outside hospitals from conditions like pneumonia or diabetes.

Woolf described the team’s application of machine learning as “intriguing,” noting that scientists are still developing their understanding of the capabilities and limitations of such research methods.