New Trump Tariff Changes Create Market Winners and Losers Across Industries

President Trump's announcement of a 15% tariff following last week's Supreme Court ruling has created uncertainty in financial markets. While some retailers and consumer companies may benefit from reduced trade barriers, domestic lumber and packaging firms face increased competition from cheaper imports.

Financial markets are grappling with fresh trade policy uncertainty after President Donald Trump unveiled a 15% tariff this week, following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn his broader trade levies last week.

On Monday, domestic lumber companies saw their stock prices drop amid concerns that cheaper foreign imports could undercut their pricing power. Meanwhile, Wall Street experts predict that retailers and exchange-traded funds focused on emerging markets could see gains down the road.

Several market sectors are positioned to feel the effects of this latest shift in U.S. trade strategy:

RETAIL AND CONSUMER GOODS

Investment firm Jefferies identified several companies that could see the biggest gains from tariff reductions, including electronics retailer Best Buy, high-end fashion brand Ralph Lauren, and athletic wear company Nike.

Target and cosmetics company Elf Beauty are also expected to benefit, according to Jefferies research.

Morgan Stanley analysts noted that products like toys, sporting goods, and games – which previously faced very high tariff rates – may see improvements since Trump’s new levy represents a 4% decrease from earlier rates.

ONLINE RETAIL PLATFORMS

BofA Global Research suggests smaller and mid-sized e-commerce companies will see varied effects from the policy changes.

Following Friday’s court ruling, stocks of Etsy, eBay, Wayfair, and Chewy had climbed higher. But Trump’s new worldwide tariff approach is expected to create additional uncertainty.

According to BofA, Etsy appears best positioned to weather tariff fluctuations due to its global diversification across multiple trade routes and nations. Roughly half of the platform’s buyers and sellers operate outside the United States, with no individual importing country accounting for more than 4% of total sales revenue.

Pet supply retailer Chewy and furniture platform Wayfair are expected to face minimal impact, with Wayfair having already adjusted to previous year’s tariff changes, the investment firm noted.

PAPER, LUMBER, AND PACKAGING INDUSTRIES

The court’s tariff decision threatens to erode the competitive advantage that domestic packaging and lumber businesses previously held against lower-cost foreign competitors, industry analysts warn.

RBC analysts identified potential negative consequences for companies including Clearwater Paper, Rayonier, Sylvamo, and Smurfit WestRock.

A recent industry survey revealed that most U.S. purchasers reported declining containerboard prices in February, as increased European imports expanded supply and created additional pricing pressures.

Monday trading saw Smurfit and domestic competitor International Paper decline by 7% and 6%, respectively.

AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR

Traditional car manufacturers Ford Motor and General Motors have faced ongoing challenges from tariff policies throughout Trump’s second presidential term, but the recent ruling is unlikely to provide relief, according to Barclays analysts.

The majority of automotive industry tariffs fall under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 and remain unaffected by the elimination of IEEPA-level duties, they explained.

METALS: STEEL, ALUMINUM, AND COPPER

Companies producing steel, aluminum, and copper – such as Steel Dynamics, Alcoa, and Freeport-McMoran – are not expected to see changes since their tariffs will continue under Section 232 protections, according to analysis from ING and UniCredit.

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS

Multiple investment firms anticipate that China will be among the nations benefiting most from the restructured U.S. tariff approach.

Hong Kong’s primary stock index finished Monday’s session up 2.5%, with technology companies like Alibaba and Tencent posting significant gains.

Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan analysts project that tariff rates affecting China will drop to 24% and 27%, respectively, down from the previous 32% level.

Other regions expected to see overall benefits include India, most Southeast Asian nations, and Brazil.

BofA forecasts that most Southeast Asian countries will experience tariff reductions of approximately 4-5%, while Morgan Stanley analysts predict India’s levies will decrease to 14%.