Nigerian Terror Attacks Signal Militant Strength Despite Military Crackdown

Recent coordinated suicide bombings in Nigeria's heavily fortified northeastern city of Maiduguri demonstrate the continued strength of jihadist groups rather than desperation, according to security experts. The attacks highlight intelligence failures and the militants' ability to strike urban targets despite ongoing military operations spanning 17 years.

Security analysts are challenging Nigeria’s president’s characterization of recent terror attacks as desperate acts, arguing instead that coordinated suicide bombings in the country’s most fortified northeastern city demonstrate the continued strength of militant organizations.

The synchronized assault on Maiduguri reveals significant intelligence breakdowns and shows that extremist groups maintain the ability to target urban centers despite continuous government military campaigns against them, experts warn.

The identity of the specific militant organization responsible for the attack remains unclear, highlighting the complicated nature of a widespread 17-year conflict that has claimed tens of thousands of lives and displaced millions of residents.

Recent weeks have witnessed multiple attacks by both Boko Haram fighters and ISWAP, a faction aligned with Islamic State, leading some security experts to suggest possible coordination between these typically competing groups.

“We have to see this as the groups oozing confidence in their ability to wreak terror in that part of the country,” said Ikemesit Effiong, partner at SBM Intelligence, a Nigeria-based risk advisory company.

“We think this is the start of a spate of bombings, not just in Maiduguri but also less protected urban areas in the northeast,” Effiong added.

President Bola Tinubu announced Tuesday his authorization of additional military equipment and support, promising forces would “completely defeat” the militants – echoing similar commitments made by former leaders.

With violence expanding throughout Nigeria, including northwestern regions, U.S. forces have recently conducted airstrikes and deployed military advisers. Officials have not clarified whether American troops would participate in any response to the bombings.

Nigeria’s battle against Islamic extremists in the northeast began in 2009 when Boko Haram first appeared in Maiduguri, the capital of Borno State, attempting to establish an Islamic state. A harsh government response resulted in the group leader’s death while in police custody and forced militants from urban areas.

The organization has since fractured into multiple factions, with one declaring loyalty to Islamic State and becoming the most powerful, controlling large portions of northeastern Nigeria.

ACLED, a crisis-monitoring organization, reported Monday’s attack as Nigeria’s deadliest suicide bombing in seven years.

Nigerian military operations have failed to prevent Islamic groups from establishing permanent footholds over the years, according to Vincent Foucher, senior research fellow with the National Centre for Scientific Research in Bordeaux.

“The jihadists control substantial rural areas, the military hold towns which are entrenched,” he explained.

Even when forces target ISWAP strongholds, such as recent operations in the Alagarno forest, Foucher noted that victories are typically short-lived.

“They killed a few people, seized and destroyed some infrastructure, including an ISWAP prison. But the jihadists just move away and wait the military out,” he said.

Nigerian military officials reported preventing four attacks in separate locations outside Maiduguri before Monday’s bombings occurred.

Malik Samuel, senior researcher at Good Governance Africa, explained that while militant groups possess the capability to attack anywhere in Borno state, executing three simultaneous strikes in a city housing military headquarters raises serious concerns about whether explosives were transported into the city or constructed locally.

“It speaks to the intelligence failure and it shows that both factions are still very, very capable,” he said.

Samuel and two additional experts believe Boko Haram militants conducted the actual attack, given their history with suicide bombings, while ISWAP typically avoids such tactics.

However, Effiong and two security sources have not dismissed the possibility of some collaboration between the groups.

“Clearly, it means Maiduguri is not as safe as the authorities would want people to believe,” Samuel stated. “Attacking Maiduguri is symbolic for these groups.”

Extremist fighters have intensified attacks against Nigerian military forces during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, killing numerous troops, including high-ranking officers, and capturing equipment.

Additionally, the Maiduguri attack demonstrated that militants are “not going anywhere, anytime soon,” Samuel observed.

The United States, maintaining a long-standing partnership with Nigeria’s military through training and weapons sales, conducted airstrikes in the northwest on Christmas Day to prevent targeting of Christians in the region.

Approximately 100 American troops have since been deployed to support the military, with U.S. forces providing intelligence through aerial surveillance.

One security source reported that this intelligence contributed to destroying four ISWAP gun trucks on March 11. However, Effiong warned it also exposes the government to accusations of being a Western puppet, potentially encouraging jihadi recruitment.

Neither the State Department nor U.S. Africa Command provided responses to requests for comment.

Foucher noted that the faction targeted by U.S. Tomahawk missiles in December remains active, demonstrating the constraints of American military intervention.

“They can regenerate easily,” Foucher said. “There are so many different fires that are burning throughout Nigeria now. It is whack-a-mole.”