NOAA Forecast: Pacific Ocean Weather Pattern Likely Shifting From La Niña to El Niño

The latest climate update from the Climate Prediction Center, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, shows that the ongoing La Nina pattern in the Pacific Ocean is weakening. Forecasters say a transition toward more neutral conditions is expected over the next few months. La Nina is a climate pattern marked by cooler than […]

The latest climate update from the Climate Prediction Center, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, shows that the ongoing La Nina pattern in the Pacific Ocean is weakening. Forecasters say a transition toward more neutral conditions is expected over the next few months.

La Nina is a climate pattern marked by cooler than normal sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. These cooler waters have persisted into early 2026, based on recent ocean temperature observations. While La Nina remains in place, its influence is beginning to fade.

According to NOAA, there is about a 75 percent chance that the Pacific will move into ENSO neutral conditions between January and March 2026. ENSO neutral means the Pacific is not in either a La Nina or El Nino phase. Forecast models suggest these neutral conditions could last through at least late spring.

One of the main signals supporting this shift is warming water beneath the ocean surface. Warmer water that had been confined to the western Pacific is now spreading eastward, helping to weaken the remaining La Nina pattern. While some atmospheric features still resemble La Nina, key wind and temperature signals are gradually trending toward neutral.

Forecasters caution that even after sea surface temperatures return to neutral, lingering impacts from La Nina could still influence weather patterns during early spring. Looking further ahead, there is increasing potential for El Nino to develop later in 2026, although confidence in that part of the forecast remains lower at this time.

NOAA continues to monitor ocean and atmospheric conditions closely and will provide regular updates as the Pacific climate pattern evolves. These outlooks help forecasters, emergency planners, and the public prepare for seasonal weather changes influenced by shifts in the tropical Pacific.