North Carolina Primary Elections Could Impact Senate Control

North Carolina voters head to the polls Tuesday to select candidates for a crucial U.S. Senate race that may determine which party controls the chamber. The primaries feature competitive races following Republican Senator Thom Tillis's retirement announcement.

WASHINGTON — Tuesday’s primary elections in North Carolina will determine the candidates for a pivotal U.S. Senate contest that could influence which party controls the evenly split chamber come November. Voters will also choose nominees for various U.S. House seats, state legislative positions, and Court of Appeals races.

Following Republican Senator Thom Tillis’s retirement announcement last June, North Carolina has emerged as one of the few states where Democrats see a realistic chance to capture a GOP-held Senate seat in what’s otherwise a challenging electoral landscape. With Republicans currently maintaining a 53-47 Senate advantage, Democrats require a net gain of four seats to reclaim control.

Twelve contenders — split evenly between both parties — are seeking to replace Tillis. Tuesday’s primary victors will advance to the November general election showdown.

Leading the Republican field is Michael Whatley, who previously served as Republican National Committee chair and has secured President Donald Trump’s endorsement. The GOP race also includes author and lawyer Don Brown, along with conservative activist Michele Morrow, both of whom pursued different offices in 2024. Brown previously sought the Republican nomination in the 8th Congressional District, while Morrow mounted a strong campaign for Superintendent of Public Instruction. Though Margot Dupre’s name remains on the ballot, election officials have disqualified her candidacy.

On the Democratic side, former two-term Governor Roy Cooper faces five challengers. Both Whatley and Cooper have significantly outpaced their primary opponents in fundraising efforts.

House races will take place using newly drawn district maps — state lawmakers redrew boundaries in 2025 as part of Trump’s initiative to increase Republican House representation through mid-decade redistricting. The reconfigured 1st Congressional District, now designed to favor Republicans, features five GOP candidates vying to unseat Democratic Representative Don Davis. Laurie Buckhout, who came close to defeating Davis in 2024, is making another attempt and will compete against Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck, state Senator Bobby Hanig, Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse, and attorney Ashley-Nicole Russell.

The heavily Democratic 4th Congressional District, encompassing the Raleigh-Durham region, will see Democratic Representative Valerie Foushee in a primary rematch against Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam. Allam finished second to Foushee in a crowded 2022 Democratic field that featured former American Idol contestant Clay Aiken. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has endorsed Allam’s candidacy.

Wake and Mecklenburg counties, containing Raleigh and Charlotte respectively, represent the state’s most populous areas and typically generate the highest voter turnout in both party primaries. Guilford County, the third-largest with roughly half the population of Wake or Mecklenburg, also holds significant influence, though Durham County usually takes precedence in Democratic contests while Forsyth County carries more weight in Republican races.

Trump’s backing should benefit Whatley considerably in a state where the then-former president won every county during his 2024 primary battle against former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.

Cooper demonstrated similar dominance, winning every county in his 2020 primary reelection campaign and losing only five small counties in his 2016 primary race.

In the 4th District contest, Allam previously captured her home base of Durham — the district’s largest county — during the 2022 primary against Foushee, while Foushee secured Orange County and achieved commanding victories in four smaller counties. The redrawn 4th District retains Durham and Orange but now includes portions of Wake and Chatham counties while losing the four smaller areas where Foushee performed strongest. Should Allam and Foushee divide Durham and Orange by comparable margins to 2022, Wake County’s results could prove decisive.

The Associated Press maintains strict standards for declaring winners, only doing so when no mathematical possibility exists for trailing candidates to overcome their deficits. Until a race is officially called, the AP continues monitoring significant developments while clearly stating no winner has been determined.

North Carolina’s primary system allows second-place finishers to demand runoff elections when the leading candidate receives less than 30% of total votes.

The state doesn’t conduct automatic recounts, though candidates may request them when margins fall below 0.5% of total votes or 10,000 votes in statewide races, or 1% in other contests. The AP may still declare winners in recount-eligible races if the lead appears too substantial for legal challenges to alter outcomes.

Polling locations close at 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

The AP will deliver vote tallies and winner declarations for contested primaries covering U.S. Senate, House, state Senate and House, plus state Court of Appeals positions.

Only registered party members can participate in their respective primaries, meaning Democrats cannot vote in Republican contests and vice versa. Unaffiliated voters may choose either party’s primary.

Current registration figures from February 21 show approximately 7.7 million eligible North Carolina voters. Republicans hold a slight edge over Democrats, with each party claiming roughly 2.3 million registered members. More than 3 million voters remain unaffiliated with any party.

The 2022 Senate primaries drew nearly 765,000 Republican votes and about 619,000 Democratic ballots. Early voting accounted for approximately 37% of Republican primary turnout and 46% of Democratic participation.

This year’s early voting numbers show more than 416,000 Democratic ballots and nearly 295,000 Republican ballots cast through Saturday.

During the 2022 Senate primaries, initial AP results appeared around 7:50 p.m. Eastern, roughly 20 minutes after polls closed. Final updates came at 12:25 a.m. Eastern with over 99% of votes tallied.

Most North Carolina counties release complete or near-complete mail and early voting results in their first updates before reporting any Election Day totals.

Following Tuesday’s primaries, 245 days will remain until the 2026 midterm elections.