Nuclear Deal Could Allow Saudi Arabia Uranium Enrichment, Experts Warn

Arms control specialists are raising concerns about a potential nuclear agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia that could permit uranium enrichment activities within the kingdom. The proposed deal has sparked worries about nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, particularly given ongoing tensions with Iran's atomic program.

Arms control specialists are expressing alarm over a potential nuclear agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia that could permit uranium enrichment operations within the kingdom, according to congressional documents and nonproliferation organizations.

Both former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden have pursued nuclear cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia to share American atomic technology. However, nonproliferation specialists caution that allowing centrifuge operations in Saudi Arabia might create opportunities for a weapons program, particularly since Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has indicated he might pursue nuclear weapons if Iran develops them.

The situation became more complex last year when Saudi Arabia and nuclear-capable Pakistan established a mutual defense agreement following Israel’s strike on Qatar that targeted Hamas leaders. Pakistan’s defense minister subsequently stated his country’s nuclear capabilities “will be made available” to Saudi Arabia if necessary, which many interpreted as a message directed at Israel, widely considered the Middle East’s sole nuclear-armed nation.

Kelsey Davenport, who serves as director for nonproliferation policy at the Washington-based Arms Control Association, emphasized the complexity of such arrangements. “Nuclear cooperation can be a positive mechanism for upholding nonproliferation norms and increasing transparency, but the devil is in the details,” Davenport stated.

She added that the documents raise “concerns that the Trump administration has not carefully considered the proliferation risks posed by its proposed nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia or the precedent this agreement may set.”

Saudi Arabia has not yet responded to inquiries from The Associated Press regarding these concerns.

Congressional documentation reviewed by the AP reveals that the Trump administration sought to establish 20 nuclear commerce agreements with countries worldwide, including Saudi Arabia. The potential Saudi agreement could generate billions of dollars in revenue.

The documentation argues that finalizing an agreement with the kingdom “will advance the national security interests of the United States, breaking with the failed policies of inaction and indecision that our competitors have capitalized on to disadvantage American industry and diminish the United States standing globally in this critical sector.” Nations including China, France, Russia and South Korea currently dominate the international nuclear power plant technology market.

The proposed agreement would require both America and Saudi Arabia to establish safeguard arrangements with the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations’ nuclear monitoring organization. This would include supervision of the “most proliferation-sensitive areas of potential nuclear cooperation,” with enrichment, fuel fabrication and reprocessing identified as possible areas of cooperation.

The Vienna-based IAEA has not responded to requests for comment. Saudi Arabia maintains membership in the IAEA, which supports peaceful nuclear development while conducting inspections to prevent secret weapons programs.

Davenport warned that “This suggests that once the bilateral safeguards agreement is in place, it will open the door for Saudi Arabia to acquire uranium enrichment technology or capabilities — possibly even from the United States.” She continued, “Even with restrictions and limits, it seems likely that Saudi Arabia will have a path to some type of uranium enrichment or access to knowledge about enrichment.”

While uranium enrichment doesn’t automatically lead to nuclear weapons development — nations must also master additional technologies including synchronized high explosives — it does create weaponization possibilities, which has driven Western concerns about Iran’s nuclear activities.

The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia’s neighbor, established what’s known as a “123 agreement” with the U.S. to construct its Barakah nuclear facility with South Korean support. However, the UAE proceeded without seeking enrichment capabilities, which nonproliferation experts consider the “gold standard” for countries pursuing atomic energy.

This push for a Saudi-U.S. agreement occurs as Trump has threatened military intervention against Iran unless it negotiates regarding its nuclear program. These military threats follow widespread Iranian protests that resulted in a violent government crackdown killing thousands and reportedly detaining tens of thousands more.

Iran has consistently maintained its nuclear enrichment activities serve peaceful purposes. Nevertheless, Western nations and the IAEA assert Iran operated an organized military nuclear program until 2003. Tehran has also enriched uranium to 60% purity, requiring only a brief technical step to reach weapons-grade levels of 90% — making it the only nation worldwide to achieve this level without an acknowledged weapons program.

Iranian officials have long referenced 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s statements as a binding fatwa, or religious ruling, prohibiting Iran from developing nuclear weapons. However, Iranian representatives have increasingly threatened to pursue weapons development as U.S. tensions have escalated.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who manages the kingdom’s daily operations, has stated that if Iran develops nuclear weapons, “we will have to get one.”