Pakistan and Afghanistan Exchange Airstrikes in Escalating Border Conflict

Pakistan launched overnight airstrikes on major Afghan cities, targeting Taliban military installations after Afghanistan attacked Pakistani border forces. Both nations report significant casualties in what Pakistan's defense minister called an "open war."

Officials from both Pakistan and Afghanistan confirmed Friday that Pakistani forces conducted overnight airstrikes targeting major Afghan cities, marking a dangerous escalation in months of border tensions between the neighboring Islamic nations.

The aerial and ground operations targeted Taliban military installations, command centers, and weapons storage facilities across multiple border areas, according to officials in both Islamabad and Kabul. The strikes followed an Afghan assault on Pakistani border personnel, officials reported.

Casualties were reported on both sides of the conflict, with Pakistan’s defense minister characterizing the situation as an “open war.”

The violence represents an intensification of tensions that began building after Pakistan conducted airstrikes against militant positions in Afghanistan the previous weekend.

Previous border fighting in October resulted in dozens of military deaths before diplomatic intervention by Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia helped establish a temporary truce between the countries.

ROOT OF THE CONFLICT

Initially, Pakistan celebrated the Taliban’s return to control in Afghanistan during 2021, with former Prime Minister Imran Khan declaring that Afghans had “broken the shackles of slavery.”

However, Pakistan’s government quickly discovered the Taliban leadership would not provide the level of cooperation Islamabad had anticipated.

Pakistani officials maintain that leaders and fighters from the militant organization Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operate from Afghan territory. They also claim that armed separatists fighting for Balochistan province’s independence use Afghanistan as a base for operations.

Data from Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, an international monitoring group, shows militant activity has grown annually since 2022, with increasing attacks from both TTP and Baloch separatist forces.

Afghan officials have consistently rejected claims that they permit militants to launch Pakistani attacks from their soil.

The Taliban government accuses Pakistan of providing sanctuary to Islamic State fighters, allegations Pakistani officials deny.

According to Islamabad, the previous ceasefire collapsed due to ongoing militant strikes originating from Afghanistan, leading to repeated confrontations and border shutdowns that have disrupted commerce and travel along the mountainous frontier.

RECENT TRIGGER EVENTS

Pakistani security officials claimed they possessed “irrefutable evidence” linking Afghan-based militants to a recent series of attacks and suicide bombings targeting Pakistani military and law enforcement personnel.

These sources identified seven planned or executed militant operations since late 2024 with connections to Afghanistan.

A recent attack in Bajaur district that claimed the lives of 11 security personnel and two civilians was carried out by an Afghan citizen, Pakistani security sources reported. The TTP claimed responsibility for this operation.

BACKGROUND ON PAKISTANI TALIBAN

Multiple militant groups operating in northwestern Pakistan formed the TTP in 2007, earning the designation “Pakistani Taliban.”

The organization has conducted attacks on civilian markets, religious sites, airports, military installations, and police facilities while seizing territory along the Afghan border and in interior regions including the Swat Valley. The group orchestrated the 2012 assault on student Malala Yousafzai, who later received the Nobel Peace Prize.

TTP forces fought alongside Afghan Taliban against American-led coalition forces in Afghanistan while providing refuge for Afghan fighters within Pakistan. Pakistani military campaigns against TTP on domestic soil achieved limited results, though a major offensive concluding in 2016 significantly reduced attacks until recent years.

FUTURE OUTLOOK

Military analysts predict Pakistan will expand its campaign while Afghanistan may respond with border post raids and increased cross-border guerrilla operations against security forces.

The military balance heavily favors Pakistan. Taliban forces number approximately 172,000 personnel, less than one-third of Pakistan’s military strength.

While the Taliban possess at least six aircraft and 23 helicopters, their operational status remains unclear, and they lack fighter aircraft or functional air power.

Pakistan maintains over 600,000 active military personnel, operates more than 6,000 armored combat vehicles, and fields over 400 military aircraft, according to 2025 International Institute for Strategic Studies data. Pakistan also possesses nuclear weapons capability.