Russia Launches Spring Offensive as Ukraine Prepares Defense Strategy

Russian forces have begun a new springtime military campaign targeting heavily fortified cities in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region. Ukrainian officials are working to counter the offensive using recent tactical improvements and expanded drone capabilities, though peace negotiations remain stalled.

KYIV, March 25 – Ukrainian military leaders are preparing to counter Russia’s latest springtime military campaign targeting fortified eastern cities, as diplomatic efforts toward peace remain at a standstill.

Russian forces are concentrating their assault on what military analysts call the “Fortress Belt” – a series of heavily defended urban areas in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region that Moscow has consistently demanded Ukraine surrender as part of any peace agreement.

Recent Russian military activity includes a battalion-sized attack northeast of Sloviansk, the belt’s northern stronghold, along with smaller operations near Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka at the southern perimeter, according to the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War. These moves appear designed to establish favorable conditions for a larger offensive push.

The deteriorating security situation became evident Friday when Sloviansk officials ordered the evacuation of children as Russian troops moved to within 20 kilometers east of the city.

Despite being outnumbered by Russian forces, Ukraine’s enhanced tactical operations and expanding drone warfare capabilities could help limit Moscow’s territorial gains, according to Rob Lee, a senior fellow at Philadelphia’s Foreign Policy Research Institute.

“Russia still has enough manpower to keep advancing this year,” Lee stated. “How far they’re going to get is an open question.”

Ukrainian forces began spring operations after reclaiming some southeastern territory in a rare victory last month, aided by Elon Musk’s restrictions on Russian use of his Starlink internet service, which disrupted Moscow’s military communications.

Ukraine reports it has begun eliminating more enemy troops than Russia can recruit – a central component of new Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov’s technology-focused, data-driven military strategy. Russia disputes Ukrainian casualty claims.

The escalating conflict coincides with Middle Eastern warfare that has shifted U.S. focus away from mediating peace discussions and boosted Russia’s treasury through rising oil prices.

The Middle East conflict is also depleting U.S. air-defense weapon supplies that Ukraine depends on to protect its cities, energy systems, and military installations.

Ukraine’s financial situation has become precarious after Hungary blocked a 90 billion euro EU loan this month, while the military continues struggling to recruit sufficient soldiers for frontline service.

MULTIPLE BATTLEFRONTS

Russia’s winter campaign resulted in the capture of nearly all of Pokrovsk, a former eastern logistics center, where Ukrainian officials reported Moscow advanced despite heavy casualties.

Yevhen Lasiychuk, commander of Ukraine’s 7th Rapid Response Corps supervising the area, reported no immediate evidence of Russia preparing a major new assault there.

However, he explained that any offensive targeting the Fortress Belt would likely coordinate attacks around Pokrovsk with sieges of nearby Kostiantynivka and Sloviansk to pressure multiple fronts simultaneously.

“They’ll try to break our battle formations, rupture them where there’s a weak point, and then exploit that,” Lasiychuk explained in a recent interview.

“The tactics haven’t changed – we understand them.”

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced Sunday that Russia was exploiting warmer weather conditions to intensify offensive operations.

Ukraine’s General Staff reported Russian forces conducted over 600 assaults across multiple front sections during a four-day period last week, including 163 near Pokrovsk and 84 near Kostiantynivka.

Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s General Staff chief, declared last week that Moscow’s offensive was “underway in all directions” and targeted the cities of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostiantynivka.

Emil Kastehelmi from Finland’s Black Bird Group security analysis team noted that recent northern Donetsk attacks involved substantial armored vehicle deployment, despite their increased vulnerability to drone strikes.

This indicated Russia’s intention to breach front lines and accelerate territorial gains, he added.

“Generally, it hasn’t been successful,” Kastehelmi observed, noting that battlefield drone dominance had neutralized armored advances. “Russia will probably continue advancing a few hundred square kilometers per month, but the general dynamics, I don’t see them changing.”

The Institute for the Study of War predicted in a recent analysis that Russia would achieve only “some tactical gains” around the Fortress Belt in 2026, rather than a significant breakthrough.

In southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, Moscow’s forces are slowly advancing across lowlands approximately 70 kilometers east of the regional capital, where Kyiv faces the challenging task of defending vast open terrain, unlike the densely built eastern cities.

“Zaporizhzhia is the steppe … where there are no geographic obstacles that might hinder the enemy’s advance or allow us to hide easily,” explained Oleh Shyriaiev, commander of the 225th Separate Assault Regiment, whose unit deployed around strategic Huliaipole this winter to help halt sudden Russian advances.

Russian troops are also attempting to advance through a narrow corridor just 20 kilometers south of heavily industrialized Zaporizhzhia city.

LIMITED GAINS AND EXTENDED STRIKES

Ukrainian territorial advances last month, totaling approximately 400 square kilometers according to government reports, were limited but delivered a significant message to Russia, said Vladyslav Urubkov, military department head at Come Back Alive, a prominent Ukrainian charity supporting army equipment.

Ukrainian officials reported that for the first time since summer 2024, Kyiv’s forces regained more territory last month than Russian forces captured. Russia claims to have captured 6,000 square kilometers total in 2025.

“It reminds them that they are not (an) absolute power and they have also weaknesses, and we see those weaknesses and we can use them,” Urubkov stated, citing what he described as low Russian troop morale and inadequate training.

He noted that Kyiv would need to concentrate larger, better-prepared forces to achieve more substantial breakthroughs elsewhere.

Lee, the FPRI analyst, said Ukraine’s counterattacks were primarily led by experienced units whose drone integration during assaults could provide broader lessons for exploiting Russian vulnerabilities.

Kyiv’s intelligence agencies, working with its Unmanned Systems Forces, have intensified long-distance strikes on strategic Russian targets including oil facilities and refineries, plus weapons and missile production sites.

Ukraine is also expanding mid-range drone strike capabilities, enabling battlefield units like those in Lasiychuk’s sector to target personnel and logistics at distances exceeding 50 kilometers.

“It doesn’t matter whether it’s an ammunition depot or food storage – both are critical targets,” Lasiychuk noted. “A soldier won’t fight without food.”

He added that improved coordination among drone units in his corps has enabled forces to plan more effectively and allocate targets with greater efficiency.