Slovenia Votes in Close Election Between Liberals and Right-Wing Populists

Citizens of Slovenia cast ballots Sunday in a closely watched parliamentary election between Prime Minister Robert Golob's liberal Freedom Movement and the right-wing Slovenian Democratic Party. The campaign was overshadowed by allegations of foreign interference involving secret recordings and a private intelligence firm.

LJUBLJANA, Slovenia — Citizens of Slovenia cast their ballots Sunday in a closely watched parliamentary election between the country’s liberal government and right-wing opposition forces, with the outcome determining whether this small European Union member continues its current liberal direction or shifts toward populist policies.

The election is anticipated to produce narrow margins following a campaign season disrupted by claims of outside interference that shocked this typically centrist EU nation.

The contest centers on two primary contenders: current Prime Minister Robert Golob’s Freedom Movement and the right-wing Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), headed by former three-term leader Janez Jansa, a populist figure who has expressed admiration for U.S. President Donald Trump.

The results will have implications beyond Slovenia’s borders within the 27-nation EU.

Golob’s administration has championed liberal positions within the European bloc, while a Jansa victory — given his close ties to Hungarian nationalist leader Viktor Orbán — would bolster Europe’s growing populist movements.

“Although Slovenia is a small Balkan country, the elections taking place there could be seen as another sign of the rise of illiberal tendencies in Europe,” Helen Levy, a researcher at the Robert Schuman Foundation, wrote in an analysis last month.

Slovenian sociologist Samo Uhan told The Associated Press that “the biggest differences between the government and the opposition are reflected in their understanding of global developments.”

Recent polling shows Slovenia’s leading parties in a virtual tie, with experts predicting neither will secure an outright majority in the 90-seat parliament, potentially giving smaller parties decisive influence in forming a government.

The result “is completely uncertain, which is nothing unusual for Slovenia as the electorate has always been polarized,” Uhan said.

Adding to the political tensions are accusations, initially raised by activist and journalist groups, that a series of covert video recordings depicting alleged government corruption were designed to influence voter behavior.

The claims further suggest connections between Jansa’s party and an international private intelligence firm behind the recordings, according to gathered evidence. While Jansa has confirmed contact with a Black Cube consultant, he has rejected allegations of election manipulation.

Official investigations have revealed that representatives from the private Black Cube intelligence company made four visits to Slovenia in recent months, including to a street in Ljubljana where Jansa’s party maintains its headquarters.

At an EU summit in Brussels Thursday, Golob called for European-level investigation into the matter.

“It is so important not to act now on behalf of Slovenia, but to act now to protect every other state that will come into election process in the next months,” Golob said. “I am absolutely confident that Slovenian voters will be able to recognize that foreign interference is something that shall never be allowed.”

Black Cube has not responded to requests for comment.

The firm, operated by two former Israeli intelligence officers, has been connected to several scandals in recent years, including covert work for film producer Harvey Weinstein aimed at undermining his accusers. The company maintains that its operations are conducted legally and ethically.

During his most recent tenure from 2020-22, Jansa faced criticism for restricting press freedoms and weakening democratic institutions in Slovenia. He has attacked Golob’s administration as a “crime syndicate” and vowed to “take back” what he calls a compromised state.

The 59-year-old Golob, a former energy sector executive, and his party emerged in 2022 as fresh alternatives for frustrated voters. However, his government has subsequently struggled with multiple cabinet changes, healthcare reform challenges, and frequent tax policy adjustments that have created an impression of instability.

On foreign policy, Golob’s government has adopted a strongly pro-Palestinian position, officially recognizing Palestinian statehood in 2024 and prohibiting senior Israeli officials from entering the country. Conversely, Jansa supports Israel and has sharply opposed Palestinian recognition.

Since gaining independence from Communist Yugoslavia in 1991, Slovenia has regularly alternated between these two political camps. This Alpine nation of 2 million joined both NATO and the EU in 2004.