Taiwan Concerned China May Take Advantage of US Focus on Middle East Conflict

Taiwanese officials worry that China might exploit America's military attention on Middle East conflicts to increase pressure on the island nation. Beijing has resumed large-scale air force operations near Taiwan after a brief lull, while Chinese state media questions the effectiveness of U.S. weapons systems.

TAIPEI, March 25 – Taiwanese leadership is expressing concern that China may capitalize on America’s military focus in the Middle East to intensify pressure on the democratic island nation.

The island democracy, considered one of the world’s most volatile potential conflict zones, continues to face mounting military threats from Beijing, which considers Taiwan part of its territory. China conducted its most recent military exercises around the island in December.

According to Taiwanese officials, Beijing has restarted major air force operations near Taiwan beginning March 14 and 15, following an unexpected reduction in such activities. Officials believe this timing coincides with U.S. military resources being shifted from East Asia to support Middle Eastern operations.

“This is a moment for China to exercise influence,” explained a high-ranking Taiwan security official who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of intelligence discussions.

“What China is trying to create is a sense that when the U.S. shifts forces away and Indo-Pacific strength is redirected to the Middle East, tension and instability should be manufactured,” the official added.

When contacted by Reuters, neither China’s Taiwan Affairs Office nor its defense ministry provided responses.

Taiwan’s defense ministry referenced recent statements by Defense Minister Wellington Koo, who noted that China’s “intention to annex us by force has always existed.”

However, the Taiwan security source noted that U.S. military resource allocation across different regions has historically maintained balance, making it unlikely to create an opening for Chinese aggression.

A State Department representative in Washington assured Reuters that America’s military capability to address multiple global threats simultaneously remains “formidable,” emphasizing U.S. dedication to maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

Chang Kuo-cheng, an international relations professor at Taipei Medical University, suggested that an extended conflict could drain American weapon supplies, shift focus from the Asia-Pacific region, and increase domestic opposition to war.

“All these factors may lead Xi Jinping to believe that, in exerting greater pressure on Taiwan or even using force against Taiwan, his position would be stronger than before this war began,” Chang explained.

He added that prolonged conflict provides China with additional insights into U.S. military strategies and potential response patterns for any future Chinese action against Taiwan.

Asian allies of the United States have similarly cautioned that the Iranian conflict might weaken defenses against Chinese aggression.

Taipei remains vigilant about Beijing’s use of the Middle East situation in its “cognitive warfare” propaganda campaigns against Taiwan. The government noted in an internal document reviewed by Reuters that AI-created online content following the conflict falsely claimed Taiwan faced a “devastating” energy crisis.

“They want people to think that one day, when Taiwan is again encircled by the Chinese military, the public will lose confidence in energy issues,” another Taiwan security official stated.

On Wednesday, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office promoted enhanced infrastructure as a benefit of “reunification,” proposing a “rapid transit link” that would include a Beijing-Taipei expressway.

This followed Beijing’s offer of energy security in exchange for the island accepting Chinese rule, which Deputy Economy Minister Ho Chin-tsang dismissed last week as additional cognitive warfare.

Chinese government media outlets view the Iranian conflict as relevant to potential future confrontation with Taiwan, despite the island’s lack of formal diplomatic relations with the United States, which remains its primary weapons supplier.

Liu Kuangyu, a researcher at the Institute of Taiwan Studies within the government-affiliated Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, suggested Taiwan’s radar installations might suffer the same fate as similar U.S. equipment reportedly destroyed in Iranian strikes.

Liu claimed Taiwan’s radar systems would be “instantly reduced to scrap metal” during “saturation attacks” by the People’s Liberation Army, according to remarks made last week on the Riyue Tantian website operated by China Media Group, the parent organization of state television.

However, the United States has not verified such Iranian attacks.

China’s state broadcaster military channel has emphasized alleged poor performance of certain U.S. weapons systems, pointing to a fire aboard the Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier as evidence.

“From the outbreak of the war up to now, the real combat performance of U.S. weapons and equipment has differed markedly from the image widely perceived by the outside world,” the broadcaster stated on its WeChat platform March 16.

Todd Harrison, a defense analyst at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, noted that the conflict provides China with valuable opportunities to study U.S. military operations, particularly advanced military equipment like the F-35 fighter aircraft.

“They’re also going to be collecting (data) on how well our air and missile defence systems work and how we employ them,” Harrison explained.

Taiwan, which has proposed additional defense spending of $40 billion, is also closely monitoring prospects for a U.S.-China leadership summit in Beijing, now delayed from early April.

Shen Yu-chung, a deputy minister at Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council responsible for China policy, said the government anticipated the discussions would address Taiwan but acknowledged having no means to influence them.

“However, we must … present a clear and consistent message to the outside world, that we are determined to rely on our own national defence to safeguard our sovereignty,” Shen stated.