Taiwan Reports Sharp Drop in Chinese Military Activity Near Island

Military flights from China around Taiwan have decreased dramatically in recent weeks, with no aircraft detected in the past week. Experts suggest this could be related to an upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping.

Military activity from China around Taiwan has dropped dramatically in recent weeks, with no aircraft detected in the past seven days, according to new data from Taiwan’s defense ministry.

Taiwan has recorded 460 Chinese military aircraft – including fighter jets and drones – entering its air defense identification zone this year, representing a 46.5% decrease compared to the same period last year, based on information compiled by the Secure Taiwan Associate Corporation research group.

February saw 190 Chinese aircraft detections, marking the lowest monthly count since Taiwan began releasing detailed daily reports in 2022 regarding what officials describe as Beijing’s ongoing pressure campaign.

Two Taiwanese officials suggest Chinese President Xi Jinping may be reducing these visible pressure tactics to improve conditions before his expected meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump later this month.

A senior Taiwan security official, speaking anonymously due to the sensitive nature of the topic, told reporters that Beijing might be attempting to project a peaceful image. “Beijing might be trying to create a false impression: I am peaceful, I am moving toward peace, so you should stop selling weapons to Taiwan,” the official stated.

China’s defense ministry and Taiwan Affairs Office did not respond to requests for comment.

The current six-day pause in Chinese military flights near Taiwan, which began February 27, represents an unusual break in operations that coincided with Iran’s conflict, according to STA researcher Tristan Tang.

Previous interruptions in Chinese military activity were typically brief and connected to weather events like typhoons or Chinese holidays.

Military corruption investigations within China’s forces could provide another explanation for the reduced activity.

Su Tzu-yun, a researcher at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Security Research, indicated the anti-corruption campaign might be the “primary reason” behind the lull, as Chinese military units undergo command structure changes that could be affecting operational readiness.

A Taiwan defense official, also requesting anonymity, suggested Beijing may be using this quiet period to analyze findings from recent large-scale military exercises.

Despite the reduction in air activity, China’s naval and coast guard operations continue at normal levels, Taiwan’s defense ministry reports, indicating Beijing has specifically scaled back the more politically provocative aerial operations.

Another senior Taiwan security official cautioned against reading too much into the temporary change. “Just because they’re not coming now doesn’t mean they won’t come back in the future, and we can’t rule out that they may be preparing for an even larger operation,” the official said.

“We should not project any change in Beijing’s intentions based solely on a few days of activity,” the official added.