Trump Claims Iran Negotiations Underway as Opposition Fears Regime Survival

President Trump says his administration is negotiating with Iranian officials, reportedly including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, describing the talks as equivalent to regime change. Many Iranian opposition members worry this could allow the Islamic Republic to remain in power under different leadership.

President Donald Trump’s recent statements about ongoing negotiations with Iranian officials have sparked anxiety among many Iranians who fear the Islamic Republic could survive under new leadership rather than face complete overthrow.

Trump referenced discussions with a “senior Iranian official” that multiple news sources have identified as Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, leading to widespread concern that Washington might settle for modified leadership instead of full regime change.

Iranian government officials have publicly rejected what they call a “deception operation” designed to position Ghalibaf as America’s chosen leader for the country. They’ve also cautioned that any ground invasion or seizure of Persian Gulf islands would trigger serious regional repercussions.

Trump has characterized these developments as equivalent to regime change in Iran, a description that troubles many Islamic Republic opponents who want complete governmental overthrow.

His Monday comments disturbed portions of the opposition, especially those who had supported Israeli and American military intervention as “humanitarian intervention,” following the lead of Reza Pahlavi. However, other opposition members view Trump’s remarks as motivation to strengthen domestic grassroots resistance movements, regardless of whether Israel and the United States choose negotiation or escalation with Tehran.

On Tuesday, Trump repeated that his administration is conducting negotiations with Iran, stating the Islamic Republic desires an agreement and expects to receive a “gift” for such a deal. He emphasized that America has already won this conflict and stressed that Washington is negotiating with “wise” Iranian leaders. Trump again described this situation as equivalent to Iranian “regime change.”

A Tehran-based international relations professor told The Media Line Tuesday evening that Washington clearly wants to avoid lengthy, grinding warfare, with Trump eager to claim political victory quickly. In this context, someone like Ghalibaf—who could maintain internal power structures while moving the system away from collapse caused by Western non-cooperation—might represent a “win-win” solution.

However, the analyst observed that Trump’s “carrot-and-stick” strategy likely won’t end here, since the Islamic Republic’s economic and military strength hasn’t been sufficiently weakened to create decisive political transformation.

Throughout this conflict, Trump has repeatedly indicated he has specific individuals in mind for Iran, drawing parallels to the Venezuela approach. Notably, American officials’ circulated lists of Iranian figures being sought didn’t include Ghalibaf—or more surprisingly, Esmail Qaani, the elusive Quds Force commander—suggesting the intended negotiating partner could be a high-ranking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps figure with political credentials, like the parliamentary speaker.

Trump’s description of his contact person, namely Ghalibaf, as “respected” contrasts sharply with his reputation among numerous Iranians. Critics view him as among the political establishment’s most controversial figures, citing widespread corruption allegations and his security service background.

His service as a senior IRGC commander and later police chief occurred during the brutal 1999 student protest suppression, events the article’s author witnessed personally at Tehran University dormitories during the crackdown by paramilitary forces, police, Basij units, IRGC personnel, and special security forces connected to the leadership.

Ghalibaf’s close relationship with Ali Khamenei—both have Mashhad origins—and his strong connections to Mojtaba Khamenei have long strengthened his position within the ruling establishment. Despite this support, financial misconduct allegations, particularly from his Tehran mayoral tenure, combined with his security record, have hurt his electoral success. He came last in the 2005 presidential race, finished second in 2013 with approximately 16.5% of votes, and withdrew in 2017 to support Ebrahim Raisi.

Following multiple presidential losses, he joined parliament, becoming speaker after low-participation elections. In the 2024 parliamentary election, he received only about 447,000 votes from roughly eight million eligible voters in the Greater Tehran district.

Ghalibaf’s career began with his early connection to Khamenei in Mashhad. After the Islamic Republic’s establishment, he rapidly rose within the IRGC, eventually leading Khatam al-Anbiya, the Guards’ influential engineering and economic division, which expanded throughout Iran and into regional and international markets. He later commanded the IRGC Air Force and received Airbus training in France. Named police chief in 2000, he subsequently entered politics, serving as Tehran’s mayor for twelve years before joining parliament.

With key IRGC commanders killed and Ali Larijani’s death—widely considered a pragmatic system strategist—some analysts believe conditions may now support Ghalibaf’s rise. As more “moderate” figures like Masoud Pezeshkian face increasing marginalization and the IRGC strengthens control, he could become a central power mediator.

Nevertheless, his support base remains narrow beyond the IRGC and portions of the clerical establishment. Among regime supporters, he’s often seen as less popular than Saeed Jalili, the Supreme Leader’s representative on the Supreme National Security Council, who conflicts with both Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf.

Claims of direct American contact with Ghalibaf remain unverified, while confirmed diplomatic engagement appears limited to Iran’s Foreign Ministry and indirect channels. Iranian officials, including Ghalibaf, have denied any planned meetings. The IRGC-linked Fars News Agency has characterized the rumors as efforts to increase internal divisions.

Meanwhile, the White House has confirmed that Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif have expressed willingness to facilitate high-level Washington-Tehran discussions. Iranian state media reiterated Tuesday that reports of potential Ghalibaf-US official meetings aim both to harm his reputation and enable his political removal, while serving broader deception strategies before possible escalation.

Simultaneously, the United States reportedly is deploying additional regional forces, including Marine units, and according to some sources, the Pentagon considers sending 82nd Airborne Division elements. Such forces could support operations securing the Strait of Hormuz or even capturing strategic islands like Kharg—scenarios representing dramatic conflict escalation.

The Media Line previously reported, citing sources and an alleged audio recording attributed to a Tehran Basij commander, that regime forces are preparing for possible ground combat extending into the capital.

While many capital homes have sustained damage and hundreds of thousands have been displaced, people increasingly worry about escalating warfare and potential disruption of water, electricity, and gas services. Even so, many residents say they don’t expect the war to conclude with the Islamic Republic surviving in power.

An Isfahan resident told The Media Line Tuesday that if reports of a Ghalibaf deal proved accurate, many Iranians would feel “deceived and abandoned—moving from one dictatorship to another.” He added that after thousands of civilian casualties and extensive infrastructure damage, any outcome short of fundamental political change, beyond leadership reshuffling within the system, would provide little concrete benefit to ordinary citizens.