Trump Privately Weighs Vance vs Rubio for 2028 as Iran Conflict Tests Both

President Trump is reportedly asking advisers whether Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio should be his political successor in 2028. The ongoing Iran conflict is highlighting their different approaches, with Vance taking a more cautious stance while Rubio strongly supports the military campaign.

WASHINGTON – President Donald Trump is privately questioning advisers about which of his top officials should carry forward his political legacy in 2028, sources reveal. The choice centers on Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, both considered leading contenders for the Republican nomination when Trump’s term limits prevent another run.

The ongoing Iran conflict, now entering its fifth week, has highlighted stark differences between the two potential successors. Vance, drawing on his military background as a former Marine who served in Iraq, has maintained a reserved position that reflects his long-standing opposition to extended overseas military engagements. Meanwhile, Rubio has become one of the administration’s strongest advocates for the current military campaign.

According to two sources familiar with Trump’s thinking, the president has been posing a simple question to his inner circle: “JD or Marco?”

Trump has indicated both officials are participating in diplomatic efforts aimed at compelling Iran to abandon its nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities while ensuring unrestricted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Political observers suggest the Iran operation’s outcome could significantly influence both men’s presidential prospects. A quick resolution favoring American interests might strengthen Rubio’s position, given his dual role as national security adviser and his crisis management experience. However, a drawn-out conflict could benefit Vance by validating his more restrained approach, which may resonate with Trump supporters who favor reduced military involvement abroad.

The president’s own approval numbers have suffered during the conflict, dropping to 36% in recent polling – the lowest since his return to office. Rising fuel costs and public opposition to the Iran war contributed to this decline, according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted last week.

Republican insiders report they’re closely monitoring Trump’s behavior toward both officials for signs of preference. Some observers believe Trump is leaning toward Rubio, though they acknowledge the president’s tendency to change direction quickly.

“Everyone is watching the body language that Trump makes on Rubio and not seeing the same on Vance,” said a Republican source with White House connections.

White House spokesman Steven Cheung dismissed speculation about Trump’s preferences, stating: “No amount of crazed media speculation about Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio will deter this administration’s mission of fighting for the American people.”

The 41-year-old Vance, once a self-described “never-Trumper,” has maintained his anti-war stance throughout his political evolution. In a 2023 Wall Street Journal piece, he praised Trump’s first presidency for avoiding new military conflicts between 2017 and 2021. Despite acknowledging “philosophical differences” with Trump on Iran, Vance publicly supported the president’s war management during a recent Oval Office appearance, agreeing that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons.

A Vance representative emphasized his commitment to the administration, saying: “Vice President Vance is proud to be a part of a highly effective team that, under President Trump’s bold leadership, has had incredible success in making America safer, more secure and more prosperous.”

Sources indicate Vance may assume a larger negotiating role if current envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner achieve meaningful progress. A person close to Vance told Reuters he plans to delay any 2028 decision until after November’s midterm elections.

The 54-year-old Rubio has indicated he wouldn’t seek the presidency if Vance runs, with sources suggesting he’d accept a vice presidential role. However, any perceived weakness in Vance’s position could encourage Rubio and other potential candidates.

Republican strategist Ron Bonjean noted Trump’s tendency to remember perceived disloyalty: “And he may call out Vance for his lack of allegiance. And if Trump remains popular with the MAGA base, that could hurt him by not getting the endorsement of the president.”

Trump has suggested a Vance-Rubio ticket would be formidable, though a senior White House official said: “Trump doesn’t want to anoint anyone.”

Recent polling shows both officials enjoy strong Republican support. Seventy-nine percent of Republicans view Vance favorably compared to 19% unfavorably, while Rubio receives 71% positive ratings against 15% negative. Trump himself maintains 79% approval among Republicans with 20% disapproval.

Rubio, whose 2016 presidential campaign ended after a contentious primary battle with Trump, has rebuilt his relationship with the president. State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott described Rubio as having “a great relationship, both professionally and personally” with Trump’s team.

Though Rubio faced criticism from some Trump supporters for suggesting Israel influenced America’s entry into the conflict, the president has since praised his diplomatic work. A senior State Department official said Rubio “has not spent a second thinking about” potential political ramifications from the war’s duration.

Conservative leader Matt Schlapp, who heads the Conservative Political Action Conference, predicted significant political consequences from the Iran campaign’s outcome. “If it is seen as successful at getting the job done… I think people will be politically rewarded for doing the right thing,” Schlapp explained. “If it goes on and on and on… I think the politics are tough.”

Republican voters continue supporting the military action, with 75% approval compared to just 6% among Democrats and 24% among independents, according to Reuters/Ipsos data.

The contrasting approaches were evident during Thursday’s televised Cabinet meeting. Rubio delivered a strong defense of Trump’s Iran strategy, declaring: “He’s not going to leave a danger like this in place.”

Vance took a more restrained tone, emphasizing diplomatic options for preventing Iranian nuclear capabilities before concluding with Easter wishes for Christians and deployed troops. “We continue to stand behind you,” he told servicemembers, “and continue to support you every step of the way.”