UK Special Election Tests Embattled PM Starmer’s Political Future

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a crucial test as voters in northwest England choose between his Labour Party and challengers from both sides of the political spectrum. The contest in Greater Manchester could determine whether Starmer survives mounting pressure within his own party after months of declining popularity.

LONDON (AP) — Voters in northwest England cast ballots Thursday in a crucial special election that may shape the political fate of struggling Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

The parliamentary contest in Greater Manchester’s Gorton and Denton district features a tight three-way battle between Starmer’s center-left Labour Party, the Green Party focused on environmental issues, and the far-right Reform UK movement. While Labour representatives have dominated this region for nearly the entire past century, Starmer’s administration has watched its approval ratings nosedive since taking power in July 2024.

Polling data and wagering odds suggest an extremely competitive race among Labour’s local councilor Angeliki Stogia, Reform UK’s Matthew Goodwin — a former academic turned political commentator — and Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer, who works as a plumber.

Reform UK, the anti-immigration movement headed by longtime far-right figure Nigel Farage, controls merely eight seats in the 650-member House of Commons compared to Labour’s 404 seats. However, the party has consistently led nationwide surveys for months, surpassing both Labour and the primary opposition Conservative Party.

The Green Party holds four parliamentary seats but has broadened its platform under “eco-populist” leader Zack Polanski to address Palestinian solidarity and drug legalization alongside environmental priorities.

Representatives from both Labour and the Greens argue their party offers the best chance to prevent a Reform victory.

“Voting Green is the only way to ensure Reform don’t win,” Spencer declared.

Starmer framed voters’ decision as one where the choice “could not be more stark: unity or division.”

Reform leader Farage urged constituents to “vote Reform to ditch Starmer.”

Predicting the election’s winner proves challenging in this diverse constituency, triggered by the departure of the district’s previous Labour representative. The area encompasses traditional working-class communities — historically Labour strongholds now leaning toward Reform — alongside significant populations of university students and Muslim residents. Many feel alienated by Labour’s centrist direction under Starmer and the government’s perceived hesitation in condemning Israel’s military actions against Hamas in Gaza, creating opportunities for Green Party growth.

Voting concludes at 10 p.m. local time (2200GMT), with final tallies expected early Friday morning.

Starmer has faced numerous challenges since guiding Labour to an overwhelming electoral triumph in July 2024. He has struggled to fulfill promises of economic expansion, public service improvements, and cost-of-living relief. Despite pledging transparent governance following 14 years of Conservative rule marked by scandals and instability, his tenure has featured policy reversals and controversial decisions regarding welfare reductions and other unpopular measures.

Britain’s next nationwide election isn’t required until 2029, making internal party opposition Starmer’s primary concern.

A Labour victory in Gorton and Denton might provide Starmer temporary relief from party critics contemplating leadership changes. Starmer recently survived a close call earlier this month when party dissatisfaction peaked following revelations about convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s connections to Peter Mandelson, the veteran Labour figure Starmer selected as Britain’s ambassador to the United States.

A defeat would highlight Labour’s deep unpopularity and the significant challenges the party faces from political opponents across the spectrum.