Ukraine War Drags On as Peace Talks Stall Despite Trump’s Push for Settlement

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has now lasted longer than Moscow's World War II campaign against Nazi Germany, with nearly 2 million casualties on both sides. Despite President Trump's efforts to broker peace, negotiations remain deadlocked over conflicting territorial and political demands from both Putin and Zelenskyy.

Russia’s comprehensive assault on Ukraine has now stretched beyond 1,418 days last month, marking a grim milestone that surpasses the duration Moscow needed to defeat Nazi Germany during World War II.

Yet unlike the Soviet forces that marched to Berlin eight decades earlier in their Great Patriotic War, Russia’s four-year comprehensive offensive against its neighboring country continues to struggle in capturing Ukraine’s eastern industrial regions completely.

Following Moscow’s unsuccessful attempt to capture Kyiv and establish a proxy government in February 2022, the battle has devolved into static warfare with enormous losses. Estimates suggest close to 2 million troops have been killed, injured, or are unaccounted for across both armies in Europe’s most catastrophic war since the 1940s.

Moscow has controlled approximately 20% of Ukrainian land since its illegal seizure of Crimea in 2014, though territorial advances following the February 24, 2022 assault have been minimal. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte recently compared Moscow’s progress to “the speed of a garden snail.”

Over the past two years, Russian forces have advanced merely 50 kilometers (roughly 30 miles) into Ukraine’s Donetsk region through brutal combat for control of several key positions.

Even with the sluggish progress and enormous costs, President Vladimir Putin continues pressing his extreme conditions in American-brokered peace negotiations, demanding that Kyiv withdraw its military from four Ukrainian territories that Moscow illegally claimed but never completely conquered. Putin has consistently threatened nuclear retaliation to discourage Western nations from increasing military aid to Kyiv.

What began with rapid movements of massive troop formations and armored vehicles during Russia’s initial assault and Ukraine’s fall 2022 counter-attack has transformed into devastating static combat across the 1,200-kilometer (750-mile) battle line.

The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies calculated Russian military losses at 1.2 million, with 325,000 deaths. Ukrainian military casualties were estimated at 600,000, including 140,000 fatalities.

“Russia has suffered the highest casualty rate of any major power in any war since World War II, and its military has performed poorly, with historically slow rates of advance and little new territory to show for its efforts over the last two years,” the organization stated, highlighting that Russian forces averaged just 70 meters (76½ yards) daily progress over two years to reach the transportation center of Pokrovsk.

Unmanned aircraft are playing a pivotal role for the first time in warfare history, making it virtually impossible for either military to secretly concentrate large numbers of soldiers.

From the conflict’s beginning, Ukraine has deployed drones to counter Moscow’s firepower advantage and halt its advances, though Russia has dramatically expanded drone usage and introduced longer-range fiber-optic connected drones to prevent electronic interference. These have extended the danger zone to 50 kilometers (approximately 30 miles) from the front lines, leaving the landscape covered in fiber strands.

The combination of advanced drone technology and World War I-era trench combat has forced small infantry units — frequently just two or three soldiers — to attempt infiltrating enemy positions in towns destroyed by Russian heavy artillery and glide bombs. Moving supplies and rescuing wounded personnel presents major difficulties as drones target supply lines.

Ukrainian leadership described this winter as the war’s most difficult period. Russia dramatically intensified attacks on the nation’s electrical infrastructure, creating power outages in Kyiv where electricity to many residents was limited to several hours daily during freezing temperatures.

Moscow has also increasingly attacked power transmission lines to stop energy transfers and fragment Ukraine’s electrical grid into separate sections, adding stress to the system.

Ukraine responded with long-distance drone strikes on petroleum refineries and other energy infrastructure deep within Russia, seeking to reduce Moscow’s export income.

Ukrainian drones and missiles destroyed multiple Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea, compelling Moscow to relocate its fleet from Russian-controlled Crimea to Novorossiysk. In a bold operation called “Spiderweb,” Ukraine launched truck-based drone attacks on several airbases housing long-range bombers throughout Russia in June, delivering an embarrassing defeat to the Kremlin.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who previously vowed to resolve the conflict in one day, has worked to halt the violence, but mediation attempts have encountered vastly different requirements from both sides.

Putin demands Ukraine withdraw its forces from the Donetsk region areas it still holds, abandon NATO membership aspirations, limit its military capabilities, and provide official recognition to Russian language, among other conditions Ukraine has refused.

Moscow has indicated openness to Kyiv’s potential European Union membership but firmly rejected any European peacekeeping forces in Ukraine as part of any agreement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks a ceasefire along current battle lines, while Putin rejects any temporary truce, insisting on a complete peace settlement.

“The territorial issue is important to the Kremlin, but the war has a more ambitious goal: to create a Ukraine that would be entirely within Russia’s sphere of influence and not perceived by Moscow as ‘anti-Russia,'” noted Tatiana Stanovaya of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Ukraine and its partners claim Putin is prolonging negotiations while capturing additional territory. The Kremlin accuses Kyiv and European allies of attempting to sabotage a preliminary agreement reached between Trump and Putin at their Alaska meeting.

Despite maintaining their stances, both Putin and Zelenskyy have complimented American mediation efforts and attempted to gain Trump’s support.

Following a problematic White House meeting last year, Zelenskyy has taken a more pragmatic negotiating approach, highlighting Ukraine’s willingness to compromise.

When Trump suggested holding presidential elections in Ukraine, Zelenskyy indicated willingness despite elections being prohibited under martial law. He proposed combining elections with a peace agreement referendum, but emphasized voting could only occur after establishing a ceasefire and securing defense guarantees from America and other partners.

Zelenskyy revealed the White House established a June deadline for ending the war and will likely pressure both nations to comply. However, even with Trump’s apparent eagerness for a peace agreement before U.S. midterm elections, obstacles persist.

With Putin demanding Ukraine’s withdrawal from Donetsk and Zelenskyy refusing, a rapid agreement seems improbable. Zelenskyy also expressed doubt about a compromise American proposal to transform the eastern region into a special economic zone.

The Kremlin believes its attacks will eventually compel Kyiv to accept Moscow’s conditions. Ukraine hopes to persist until Trump becomes impatient and increases sanctions against Russia, forcing Putin to end his military campaign. Yet Trump frequently appears to lose patience with Zelenskyy instead.

The conflict and Western economic restrictions have increasingly pressured Russia’s economy. Economic expansion has nearly stopped due to continuing inflation and worker shortages. Recent U.S. sanctions targeting Russian oil exports have intensified these pressures.

Despite economic difficulties, Russia’s weapons manufacturing has boosted production while its government has protected crucial groups like military personnel and factory workers from hardship.

“Its economy is poorer, less efficient and less promising than it might otherwise have been,” wrote Richard Connolly of the Royal United Services Institute. “But it remains capable of sustaining the war. Its elites are more dependent on the regime, not less. Its political system is insulated from the transmission of economic discontent into pressure for regime change.”