Wall Street Watches Trump’s State of Union for Market-Moving Policy Hints

Financial markets are on edge ahead of President Trump's State of the Union address Tuesday night, with investors worried the speech could announce policies that increase market volatility. Experts say topics like Iran, trade tariffs, and affordability measures could significantly impact stocks and bonds.

Financial markets are holding their breath as President Donald Trump prepares to deliver his State of the Union address Tuesday evening, with Wall Street analysts warning the speech could heighten investor concerns during an already turbulent period.

The address comes just days after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s emergency tariff powers, leaving market watchers wondering what policy announcements might emerge that could shake up trading in areas ranging from international trade to housing costs to Middle East tensions.

Trump’s second presidential term has brought significant market swings as investors navigate the administration’s efforts to reshape America’s trade partnerships with other nations.

Though the S&P 500 has climbed 13% during the 400 days following Trump’s January 2025 swearing-in ceremony, the key market indicator has shown minimal growth throughout 2026, with U.S. markets trailing behind international exchanges while the dollar hovers near its weakest levels since 2022.

“Just as the winter storms in the Northeast have been adding to the piles of snow on the roads, I’m afraid that this speech is just going to add to the levels of anxiety in the market,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. This year, he adds, the crowded policy agenda “makes everything a little less predictable.”

While presidential State of the Union addresses typically have minimal influence on financial markets, according to Stovall and fellow market experts, since they usually focus on highlighting accomplishments and outlining broad policy goals, they warn Trump might discuss anything from military action against Iran to more aggressive trade tariffs than previously announced.

Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments, pointed to numerous agenda items that could rattle financial markets if the president addresses them, spanning from geopolitical concerns like Iran—where any aggressive stance could drive oil prices significantly higher—to Federal Reserve policy changes.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Reuters the president intends to highlight his administration’s successes during the speech while outlining “an ambitious agenda to continue bringing the American Dream back for working people.”

COST OF LIVING CONCERNS TAKE CENTER STAGE

Market observers anticipate affordability issues will feature prominently in the address, particularly as November’s midterm congressional races approach and cost-of-living concerns remain top voter priorities. Trump has previously declared success in fighting inflation while proposing various solutions for expensive housing costs.

The president is also anticipated to discuss plans for implementing “Trump accounts”—government-backed investment programs for newborns—as part of his affordability initiative.

“He could propose other ideas around mortgage affordability that might impact the bond market,” said Tom Graff, chief investment officer at Facet. “There is also the proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates. There could be new details around that, which is definitely being closely watched by Wall Street.”

Rosen warned that any hints about sending stimulus payments to taxpayers before the midterm elections would spark concerns about increased government debt and drive bond yields upward.

Even if Trump uses the platform primarily to celebrate achievements, as Monday’s client analysis from Beacon Policy Advisors suggested, investors remain skeptical this approach would calm market nerves, particularly if combined with continued reliance on executive orders for policy implementation, as Beacon’s researchers predicted.

“That’s been the recipe for so much chaos, confusion and uncertainty in the last year that the idea of more of that in 2026 would spook a lot of folks,” said Stovall.