War Forces Iranian Citizens to Make Difficult Choice: Stay or Flee

As conflict continues in Iran, millions face the agonizing decision of whether to leave their homeland or stay to protect family and property. While some Iranian citizens are fleeing to neighboring countries like Turkey, others are returning home from abroad to be with loved ones during the crisis.

KAPIKOY BORDER CROSSING, Turkey (AP) — When explosions struck close to her residence in Golestan, a city in eastern Iran, 32-year-old hairdresser Merve Pourkaz made the difficult decision to abandon her home.

The young woman journeyed approximately 1,500 kilometers (932 miles) to reach a mountainous border checkpoint, hoping to find refuge in the Turkish city of Van.

“If they let me, I will stay in Van until the war ends,” she told The Associated Press recently while waiting at the crossing. “If the war doesn’t end, maybe I’ll go back and die.”

According to United Nations refugee agency estimates, Pourkaz represents one of 3.2 million Iranians who have been forced from their homes since fighting began between the U.S.-Israel coalition and Iran. While many are finding temporary refuge in more secure areas within Iran or in adjacent nations, some individuals are actually traveling back from overseas, determined to defend their loved ones and property.

The number of people choosing to leave remains relatively small thus far: U.N. data shows approximately 1,300 Iranians cross into Turkey daily since hostilities commenced, with some days seeing more people return to Iran than depart. However, Iran’s neighboring countries and European nations are expressing growing alarm about a potential refugee emergency if the conflict continues, prompting preparations for various scenarios.

While Pourkaz made her way into Turkey, 45-year-old Leila Rabetnezhadfard traveled in the opposite direction.

Rabetnezhadfard had been in Istanbul making wedding plans with a German university professor when the conflict erupted. She delayed her marriage ceremony and departed for her hometown of Shiraz in southern Iran.

“How can I feel safe in Istanbul when my family is living in Iran during the war?” said Rabetnezhadfard, explaining that bringing her family to Istanbul wasn’t an option because her apartment is small, her brother needs medical care, and life there is expensive.

“I will not leave Iran until the war ends,” she said.

United Nations officials have cautioned that ongoing hostilities will probably force additional Iranians to abandon their residences.

Similar to the 12-day military action from the previous year, numerous Iranians are currently remaining in their homes, either lacking funds to evacuate or responding to U.S. President Donald Trump’s February 28 advisory.

“Stay sheltered. Don’t leave your home. It’s very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere,” he said.

While massive numbers of Iranians have not yet departed the nation, residents have been moving from major urban centers to the comparatively safer rural areas near the Caspian Sea north of Tehran, the capital, according to the International Organization for Migration.

“Movement out of Iran appears limited mainly because people are prioritizing staying with their families, as well as the safety of their families and property, and due to security conditions and logistical constraints,” said Salvador Gutierrez, chief of the IOM’s mission in Iran.

Should Iran’s essential infrastructure face destruction, this could trigger mass movements of people attempting to enter one of Iran’s neighboring nations: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey and Iraq.

“If Tehran, a city of 10 million people, doesn’t have water, they’re going to go somewhere,” said Alex Vatanka, a fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

The country already hosts one of the globe’s largest displaced populations: approximately 2.5 million forced migrants primarily from Afghanistan and Iraq.

Should the situation worsen, humanitarian organizations indicate the most probable destinations for displaced people would be Iran’s frontiers with Iraq and Turkey, spanning roughly 2,200 kilometers (1,367 miles) across challenging mountainous landscape inhabited by numerous Kurdish populations and difficult to monitor.

Turkey previously maintained what officials called an open-door policy that permitted millions of Syrian displaced persons to enter during Syria’s prolonged civil conflict. However, the country has since abandoned this strategy for multiple reasons.

Turkish officials have instead developed plans to house Iranian refugees in “buffer zones” near the frontier, or in temporary camps or housing within Turkey, according to the country’s Hurriyet newspaper quoting Turkish Interior Minister Mustafa Ciftci.

Iranians who have escaped the fighting will probably not pursue official refugee recognition in Turkey because asylum applications could require years to resolve, if approved at all, according to Sara Karakoyun, an aid worker at the independent Human Resource Development Foundation located near the border.

“They don’t want to wait in limbo for years for a refugee status they might not get,” she said.

Turkey’s defense ministry announced in January that the nation had strengthened its Iranian border by constructing 380 kilometers of concrete barriers, 203 optical monitoring towers and 43 surveillance positions.

Turkey will probably deploy military forces to patrol its frontier and strictly regulate the movement of people entering the country while requesting European Union funding to assist with refugee management, according to Riccardo Gasco, an analyst at the IstanPol Institute.

The Syrian refugee emergency from ten years ago fundamentally changed EU-Turkey relations. Almost two-thirds of the 4.5 million Syrians escaping civil war settled in Turkey. Many subsequently traveled to Europe using small watercraft.

Brussels and Ankara negotiated a migration agreement in 2016 where the EU provided Turkey incentives and up to 6 billion euros ($7.1 billion) in assistance for Syrian refugees within its borders to convince Ankara to prevent tens of thousands of migrants from departing for Greece.

Humanitarian groups criticized that agreement for creating outdoor detention facilities with deplorable conditions. However, EU leadership viewed the deal as life-saving, preventing many migrants from reaching EU territory while improving refugee conditions in Turkey.

The agreement’s renewal comes up this year, but Turkish public opinion has turned against Syrian refugees and anti-immigration right-wing political movements have gained strength across parts of Europe.

Additionally, another displacement crisis is already developing even nearer to Europe, with combat in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah forcing more than 800,000 people from their homes so far.

“We’ve got a situation (in the Middle East) that could have grave humanitarian consequences right at a time where humanitarian funding has been completely slashed,” said Ninette Kelley, chair of the World Refugee & Migration Council, pointing to the Trump administration’s gutting of USAID. “Is the world ready for another humanitarian disaster?”