White House Doubts Iran Leadership Change Despite Supreme Leader’s Death

Despite the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a U.S.-Israeli military operation Saturday, American intelligence officials express doubt about immediate regime change in Tehran. Three U.S. officials say Iran's opposition lacks the strength to overthrow the authoritarian government that has ruled since 1979.

The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Saturday’s U.S.-Israeli military strike has not convinced American intelligence officials that Tehran’s government will collapse anytime soon, according to sources familiar with the situation.

While President Donald Trump and other administration figures have indicated that overthrowing Iran’s authoritarian leadership was among Washington’s objectives—alongside dismantling the country’s nuclear and missile capabilities—three intelligence officials tell Reuters they doubt Iran’s weakened opposition movement can bring down the theocratic system that has controlled the nation since 1979.

In a Truth Social video message Sunday, Trump appealed directly to Iranian citizens, stating: “I call upon all Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment … and take back your country.”

However, American officials who spoke with Reuters say while they cannot entirely dismiss the possibility of governmental collapse—particularly given ongoing airstrikes that have eliminated key Iranian personnel and widespread public anger following January’s brutal crackdown on protesters—such an outcome remains unlikely in the immediate future.

Intelligence reports delivered to the White House before the military operation began warned that Khamenei’s elimination could simply result in his replacement by hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders or similarly extremist religious leaders, two sources revealed.

A White House official with access to internal discussions explained that IRGC leadership is unlikely to surrender voluntarily, partly because they have prospered under an extensive patronage system created to ensure loyalty within their ranks.

These CIA evaluations came after separate intelligence agency reporting that noted zero IRGC defections occurred during January’s massive anti-government demonstrations, which Iranian security forces crushed with extreme violence. According to three additional sources, such military defections would likely be essential for any successful revolutionary movement. These sources asked that their specific agency not be identified.

All sources interviewed for this report demanded anonymity when discussing classified intelligence materials.

Trump’s Sunday announcement that he intends to restart diplomatic contact with Iran suggests Washington expects the current government to remain in power, at least temporarily.

Neither the White House nor CIA provided immediate responses to requests for comment.

On Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian announced that a temporary leadership committee consisting of himself, the judiciary chief, and a Guardian Council representative had assumed the Supreme Leader’s responsibilities.

Security official Ali Larijani condemned the United States and Israel for attempting to “plunder and disintegrate Iran” and threatened harsh retaliation against “secessionist groups” if they take action, according to state television reports Sunday. This followed the two nations’ aerial bombardment campaign against Iran, which allegedly included striking a girls’ elementary school. Reuters was unable to independently verify these state media claims.

American intelligence conversations about Khamenei’s potential elimination have extended beyond questions of leadership transition.

Two officials revealed that since January, agencies have engaged in substantial discussions—without reaching agreement—about whether Khamenei’s death might significantly alter Iran’s approach to nuclear program negotiations with Washington.

Intelligence personnel have also debated how much the Supreme Leader’s removal might discourage Iran from reconstructing its missile and nuclear infrastructure, according to these officials, who requested anonymity for discussing sensitive internal conversations.

After January’s protests, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special representative and close associate, held multiple conversations with Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi, the former shah’s exiled son. This raised questions about potential American support for his installation should Iran’s government fall, two officials noted.

However, senior administration figures have grown increasingly doubtful in recent weeks that any Washington-backed opposition leader could realistically govern the country, these officials added.

Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior intelligence official now with Washington’s Atlantic Council think tank, explained the challenge: “At the end of the day, once U.S. and Israeli strikes stop, if the Iranian people come out, their success in promoting the end of the regime will depend on the rank and file standing aside or aligning with them.”

“Otherwise, the remnants of the regime, those with the weapons, are likely to use them to keep power,” Panikoff concluded.