Yemen’s Houthis Stay Out of Middle East War While Other Iran Allies Join Fight

While other Iran-backed groups have entered the expanding Middle East conflict, Yemen's Houthi rebels remain on the sidelines despite their battle-tested capabilities. Analysts say the group is strategically waiting for the right moment to join, potentially targeting oil shipments and regional shipping routes.

CAIRO (AP) — While the Middle East conflict expands and other Iran-supported groups jump into the fighting, Yemen’s Houthi militants continue watching from the sidelines, sparking questions about their strategy and when the experienced fighters might enter the war.

Tehran has launched retaliatory strikes against American and Israeli targets using missiles and drones, hitting U.S. military installations and sites across Gulf nations, disrupting commercial shipping lanes, restricting fuel deliveries and putting regional aviation at risk.

In his inaugural written message since taking over after his father’s death in the war’s initial strikes, Iran’s new supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei indicated Thursday that Tehran might expand the conflict to additional battlegrounds — suggesting to experts that Houthi participation could be imminent.

The Houthis have stayed out of the fighting due to concerns about targeted killings of their commanders, internal Yemeni political splits, and questions about weapons resupply, according to regional specialists.

However, this stance could shift as Iran looks to apply greater pressure on international oil transportation routes through possible Houthi operations, given the group’s demonstrated ability to successfully strike petroleum infrastructure across the region, experts noted.

Tehran has extended its regional reach through allied forces operating in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and with Yemen’s Houthis.

Several key Iranian partners have already entered the current fighting, including Hezbollah which renewed attacks against Israel just two days after Iran was struck — only 15 months following the end of the previous Israel-Hezbollah conflict that concluded with a November 2024 ceasefire. Iraqi militias associated with the Islamic Resistance have taken responsibility for drone attacks on American facilities in Irbil.

In contrast, the Houthis have limited their response to public demonstrations and statements criticizing the Iran conflict, a marked difference from their extensive missile and drone campaigns against Israel and Red Sea shipping following Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023 assault on Israel that triggered the Gaza war.

Here’s an examination of Houthi military strength and their position in the current crisis.

Equipped with Iranian weapons, the Houthis captured much of northern Yemen including the capital Sanaa in 2014, forcing the country’s internationally recognized leadership into exile. A Saudi-led military alliance supporting Yemen’s government joined the fighting in 2015, leading to an ongoing but largely deadlocked civil war.

Though the Houthis maintain some political and religious connections with Iran, they practice a different branch of Shiite Islam and operate independently from Iran’s supreme leader, unlike Lebanon’s Hezbollah militants and various Iran-supported Iraqi armed groups.

Nevertheless, they remain crucial to Iran’s regional strategy and the current conflict is unlikely to diminish that role, according to Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen specialist at the International Crisis Group think tank.

“From Tehran’s perspective, the Houthis have proven themselves to be a capable and effective front, able to generate real pressure,” Nagi said.

He explained that Houthi leadership’s choice to stay away from the conflict represents a strategic decision made in full coordination with Iranian officials.

Two Houthi representatives from the organization’s media and political departments told The Associated Press that the rebels’ ammunition reserves are depleted following their operations during the Israel-Hamas conflict. The Iran war has additionally disrupted weapons shipments, according to these sources, who requested anonymity as they lacked authorization to speak with journalists.

However, the group maintains substantial drone stockpiles, according to another official who spoke anonymously to address the sensitive weapons topic.

Nagi reported that the Houthis appear to be strengthening their forces through expanded recruitment, domestic weapons manufacturing, and deploying additional troops to Yemen’s Red Sea coastal areas, indicating preparation for potential escalation.

“The decision is not about unwillingness to intervene, but about timing,” Nagi said. “Iran’s broader strategy seems to be to avoid throwing all its cards on the table at once, instead using its partners and capabilities gradually as the confrontation evolves.”

The Houthis would likely participate if the conflict expands further, Nagi added, or if they see an existential danger to Iran, such as major losses in military strength.

Houthi commander Abdulmalik al-Houthi has consistently stated the group stands ready to act, declaring their “hands are on the trigger,” though the specific nature of such involvement remains unclear.

“Houthis, of course, are always ready for any war,” said Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London. “Some weaponry moved in different areas inside Yemen recently … but it’s still not clear whether it’s for a military escalation.”

Should the Houthis join the war, they would most likely restart attacks on Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping while simultaneously targeting Israel, Nagi explained. They might also participate in Iran’s strikes against Gulf nations, focusing on American military facilities and interests.

Ship attacks during the Israel-Hamas war devastated Red Sea commerce, disrupting the flow of approximately $1 trillion in annual trade that previously passed through the waterway. The rebels additionally launched drone strikes at Israel.

If the Houthis enter the Iran conflict, oil tankers would probably be their main targets, analysts predicted, since maritime attacks offer immediate leverage and would demonstrate escalation while affecting energy distribution networks.

Strikes on petroleum facilities could also be considered. The Houthis have previously attacked Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure during their extended fight against the Saudi-led coalition.

American military installations in the region could also become targets, Nagi suggested.

Abdel-Bari Taher, a political expert and former Yemen press syndicate leader, explained that any war participation decision is influenced by Yemen’s internal conditions, including recent fatal fighting in southern Yemen, public resistance in Sanaa to joining the conflict, and increased caution among Houthi leaders following prominent assassinations.

The two Houthi officials from the group’s media and political wings reported that the U.S. has issued warnings through Omani intermediaries against war participation. They stated that Houthi political and security commanders have been informed that their mobile phones are being monitored by American and Israeli intelligence. Due to assassination fears, Houthi leaders have been ordered to avoid public appearances, the officials revealed.

“Despite these constraints and the complex domestic and regional dynamics, Houthi involvement in the conflict remains a possibility,” Taher said.

Al-Muslimi, the Chatham House expert, argued that the Houthis lack sufficient military resources or internal Yemeni motivations that would compel them to enter the war, and the group appears dedicated to maintaining a U.S.-brokered ceasefire negotiated through Oman last year.

“They hope to fight, especially with Israel, but they can’t be the ones to fire the first shot,” al-Muslimi said.

He suggested the Houthis would probably require a domestic Yemeni justification to join the fighting — a rationale that would boost support among their local supporters.

Al-Muslimi observed: The Houthis “are a local group that Iran uses and supports, but didn’t create.”