Analysis-Trump setbacks fuel lame-duck talk as he turns 80

By Matt Spetalnick and Nandita Bose

WASHINGTON, June 10 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump is trying to project political strength as he turns 80, but setbacks at home and abroad are exposing the limits of his power and pushing him toward the kind of lame-duck status he has told aides he is determined to avoid.

Nearly 17 months into his second term, the courts are pushing back, his effort to wind down the Iran war has stalled, and his approval ratings have weakened. Some fellow Republicans in Congress are also defying him – though his hold on core supporters remains firm.

Still, Trump has shown he retains significant clout: he has helped oust Republican incumbents in primary races and has pressed ahead with aggressive trade policies. He has also pursued high-profile construction projects in Washington in one of the most ambitious building drives by a U.S. president in years.

This dynamic is unfolding just months ahead of November’s midterm elections as Trump’s Republican Party scrambles to maintain control of Congress. The loss of one or both chambers to opposition Democrats could hasten his slide into a lame-duck phase, historically when a president – if barred from running again – sees influence waning and domestic priorities stymied.

The White House is trying to prevent that narrative from taking hold prematurely and has been forceful about letting Republican lawmakers know Trump can still make or break them, according to a presidential adviser, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal matters.

But with some Republicans already showing greater willingness to stand up to Trump, the adviser acknowledged it was inevitable that his authority would begin to diminish.

“He’ll naturally start to lose leverage, especially after the midterms,” the adviser said.

Trump has privately told staffers that one of the reasons he has mused about a third term, which is forbidden by the Constitution, is to ward off any public perception that he might become a lame duck and slip into “irrelevance,” according to a former senior aide who spoke on condition of anonymity.

White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales said, “President Trump is the unequivocal leader of the Republican Party who is committed to maintaining Republicans’ majority in Congress.”

HEALTH UNDER SCRUTINY

The questions about Trump’s political standing come as scrutiny of his personal stamina is intensifying.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll in February found 61 percent of Americans thought Trump had become more erratic with age, and another survey in April showed a majority concerned about his temperament and mental sharpness.

Trump, who is the oldest president sworn into office, will celebrate his 80th birthday on Sunday by hosting a UFC cage fight on the White House lawn.

After a flurry of near-weekly travel early in the year, Trump has largely stayed at the White House or his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida since he launched the Iran war on February 28. He has made only a handful of domestic trips since then.

His public daily schedule consists largely of “executive time” and policy meetings held behind closed doors. He is often more visible on his Truth Social platform, where he posts throughout the day and late into the night.

Trump declared himself in excellent condition following a routine checkup last month after he was seen at public events with swollen ankles, which his doctors have described as only a “slight” issue, and with bruising on his hands.

A senior White House official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said Trump was keen to avoid comparisons to Joe Biden, his Democratic predecessor who faced questions about his fitness for the job before leaving office at 82.

Even so, Trump has occasionally been caught on camera appearing to doze off at events, including at an NBA Finals game at Madison Square Garden on Monday. As clips of him with his eyes shut have gone viral, Trump aides have fired back on social media, claiming he was blinking or listening intently.

White House spokesman Davis Ingle described Trump as “the sharpest and most accessible president in American history.”

A WEAKENING HAND

Analysts agree that even if Trump’s political influence wanes, he can still rely on executive orders to shape policy and act more freely on the world stage, where presidents have greater leeway to take action unilaterally.

Still, there have been signs of Trump’s weakening hand.

While he is not likely to see a full-scale Republican revolt, some defeated incumbents, who remain in office until January, have already begun opposing parts of his agenda and have also signalled pushback against his cabinet nominations.

In the past two weeks, small Republican factions in the Senate and House of Representatives have joined with Democrats to rebuke him over the Iran war, reject $1 billion in funding tied to his ballroom and force a retreat on his $1.8 billion fund to pay political allies claiming they were victims of “weaponized” prosecution.

As Trump has struggled to achieve policy objectives, he has become more preoccupied with his construction projects. He is increasingly touting not only the ornate ballroom under construction but also refurbishment of the Reflecting Pool on the National Mall and a proposed triumphal arch.

One way Trump is likely to continue exercising power is in the selection of Republicans’ 2028 presidential nominee, seen as a contest between Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

And for the rest of Trump’s term, the world should expect the unexpected from a president who prides himself on unpredictability, said Douglas Brinkley, a presidential historian at Rice University.

“His helter-skelter style of leadership, that’s not going anywhere, whether the Democrats take Congress or not,” he said.

(Reporting by Matt Spetalnick and Nandita Bose; Additional reporting by Steve Holland and Andy Sullivan; Writing by Matt Spetalnick; Editing by Ross Colvin and Alistair Bell)