AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Louisiana’s state primary runoff

WASHINGTON (AP) — Louisiana Republicans will nominate a candidate for U.S. Senate in a primary runoff Saturday, six weeks after denying Republican U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy a shot at a third term.

Although President Donald Trump already achieved one of his top political goals with Cassidy’s defeat, Saturday’s runoff could further demonstrate his ongoing influence in Republican primaries as he tries to populate the halls of Congress with loyalists for his final two years in office. The seat is not a top target among Democrats looking to win back control of the chamber in November.

Republican U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow and state Treasurer John Fleming are the finalists for Cassidy’s now-open U.S. Senate seat. Trump encouraged Letlow to challenge Cassidy in the primary and endorsed her before she entered the race in January. Letlow took office in 2021 in a special election to replace her husband, Luke Letlow, who died from COVID-19 in 2020 before taking office. Fleming served in Congress for eight years leading up to Trump’s first term. He ran for U.S. Senate in 2016 but failed to make the runoff. Republican John Kennedy won the seat.

In the May 16 primary, Letlow placed first with about 45% of the vote, short of the majority required to avoid Saturday’s runoff. Fleming placed second with 28% of the vote, just ahead of Cassidy with about 25%.

Letlow led in small, mostly rural parishes across the state, with outright majorities in parishes in northeastern Louisiana and along the Mississippi border. Fleming mostly placed a distant second across the state. He performed best in northwestern Louisiana, with leads in nine rural parishes, but not in Caddo, home to Shreveport, where he finished a close second behind Letlow.

Cassidy was the top vote-getter in the state’s three most populous parishes, including Orleans Parish where he led Letlow by almost a three-to-one margin. But he barely outperformed Letlow in East Baton Rouge and Jefferson parishes.

The president’s endorsees have generally had a strong winning record at the ballot box, but his recent picks for governor of Iowa and Georgia lost their primaries. Trump endorsed South Carolina Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette for governor ahead of the primary, but after she was forced to a runoff in a close vote, he announced he was backing both her and her opponent, state Attorney General Alan Wilson, who won the nomination on Tuesday.

Trump has reissued his endorsement of Letlow several times since January, including most recently in mid-June. He has not also endorsed Fleming.

Louisiana Democrats will also finalize their U.S. Senate nominee, with farmer Jamie Davis and Navy veteran Gary Crockett competing in the runoff.

Other primary runoffs on the ballot include Republican contests for Public Service Commission and state board of education, where incumbent board member and former Republican U.S. Rep. Joseph Cao faces a challenge from educator and business owner Ellie Schroder.

Primaries for U.S. House were were postponed to November after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the state’s current congressional map, which includes a majority Black district that favors Democrats. Although the state had previously adopted a new primary system for congressional races, the postponed U.S. House races will revert to using an “open” or “ jungle ” primary system where candidates run on the same ballot regardless of party.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls close at 8 p.m. CT, which is 9 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in primary runoffs for U.S. Senate, state Public Service Commission and state school board.

Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary runoffs. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in a Republican runoff or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters who voted in a party’s primary on May 16 may only vote in that same party’s runoff. Independent or unaffiliated voters who did not vote in a partisan primary on May 16 may vote in either party’s runoff.

As of June 1, there were about 3 million registered voters in Louisiana. Registered Democrats and Republicans numbered about 1.1 million each, with registered Democrats at a slight advantage. About 819,000 voters were not registered with any party. The remainder were registered with other parties.

About 832,000 Louisianans participated in the May 16 primary, or about 28% of registered voters. This includes about 347,000 registered Democrats and about 336,000 registered Republicans.

In 2022 when the state still used “open” or “jungle” primary rules for certain contests, turnout fell from 1.4 million in the November primary to about 439,000 in the December runoff, or about 47% of registered voters to about 14%.

About 33% of Democratic primary votes and about 31% of Republican primary votes in the May 16 primaries were cast early in-person or by mail.

As of Thursday, about 82,000 ballots from Republicans and about 61,000 ballots from Democrats had already been cast in Saturday’s runoffs.

Results from early and absentee voting are usually released by each parish in the first vote update.

In the May 16 primary, the AP first reported results at 9:02 p.m. ET, or two minutes after polls closed. By 10:46 p.m. ET, more than 90% of the total vote had been counted. The last vote update of the night was at 1:30 a.m. ET with about 99.9% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There are no automatic recounts in Louisiana, but a candidate may request and pay for a recount of absentee and early votes. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Saturday, there will be 129 days until the Nov. 3 general election and the Louisiana congressional primaries, and 168 days until the Louisiana congressional general election on Dec. 12.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.