AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Nevada’s state primary

WASHINGTON (AP) — Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo will face six Republican challengers in a state primary on Tuesday, while six Democrats will compete for the nomination to reclaim the seat in November. Other races on the ballot include primaries for U.S. House and a variety of state offices, as well as a mayoral election in Henderson, Nevada’s second largest city.

The winner of the governor’s mansion in the key swing state could play a pivotal role in the 2028 presidential campaign, assuming Nevada maintains its slot as the first-in-the-West nominating contest for both parties.

Lombardo was elected in 2022, when he was the only challenger in the country to defeat an incumbent governor. He edged Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak by 1.5 percentage points.

The Democratic field includes state Attorney General Aaron Ford and Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill.

With no presidential or U.S. Senate race on the ballot in Nevada this cycle, the gubernatorial contest has been the main driver of campaign ad spending in the state, including by dark-money groups that can raise and spend unlimited amounts and are not required to disclose their donors.

Among the U.S. House races, the state’s lone Republican congressman, Mark Amodei of the 2nd District, is not seeking an eighth full term. The seat is not expected to be particularly competitive in November. Amodei won reelection in 2024 with 55% of the vote, while Donald Trump carried the district in the presidential race with about 56% of the vote. That raises the stakes in this year’s Republican primary among former state Sen. James Settelmeyer, financial adviser and small business owner David Flippo and 11 others, since the winner will be favored to claim the seat in November. Trump has endorsed Flippo.

The races for the seats held by Democratic U.S. Reps. Dina Titus, Susie Lee and Steven Horsford are expected to be more competitive. All three Democratic incumbents are seeking reelection, but only Horsford in the 4th District faces no primary opposition.

In the state Legislature, about half of Nevada’s 21 state Senate seats and all 42 state House seats are up for election this year. Democrats hold both chambers.

In Henderson, Mayor Michelle Romero seeks a second term in the nonpartisan office against four challengers, including former Henderson police Chief Hollie Chadwick. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, the top two finishers will compete in a runoff scheduled for the November general election.

Clark County, home to both Las Vegas and Henderson, is by far the state’s most populous county. It routinely contributes about 69% of the total vote in statewide contests. Washoe County, home to Reno, has the second-highest population and usually contributes about 18% of the statewide vote. They are the two key counties to watch in both Republican and Democratic statewide primaries.

Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:

Polls are scheduled to close at 7 p.m. PT, which is 10 p.m. ET, but state law requires polls to stay open until all voters in line by poll closing time have cast their ballots.

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. House, governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, state treasurer, state controller, state attorney general, state Senate and state Assembly, as well as a mayoral election in Henderson. “None of these candidates” appears as a ballot option for statewide constitutional offices, but not for Congress or state Legislature.

Only voters registered with a political party may participate in that party’s primary. Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. However, any eligible voter may register to vote or change party affiliation at the polls on Election Day or during early voting.

As of June 1, there were about 670,000 registered Democrats and about 659,000 registered Republicans. About 162,000 were registered with other parties, while 965,000 voters were not registered with any party.

About 157,000 Democratic primary votes and about 171,350 Republican primary votes were cast in Nevada’s 2024 primaries for U.S. Senate.

Mail ballots comprised about 65% of the vote in the 2024 state primary and about 57% in the 2022 state primary. In-person early voting comprised about 17% in the 2024 primary and about 22% in the 2022 primary.

As of Friday, about 246,000 ballots had already been cast in Tuesday’s election, about 42% from Democrats, about 42% from Republicans and the remainder from other voters.

Nevada’s 17 counties vary in how they release results from early in-person and mail voting. Most counties tend to release all or nearly all of their early in-person voting results in the first update of the night, while less than half tend to release mail voting results in the first update.

In both Clark and Washoe counties, the first vote update of the night tends to include all early in-person voting results and partial mail voting results, before any in-person Election Day results are released.

In the 2024 state primaries, the AP first reported results at 11:04 p.m. ET. This was more than an hour after the scheduled poll closing time, but the state doesn’t release any votes until it confirms that voting has concluded in every county. The last vote update of the night was at 11:55 p.m. ET in the Republican primary, with about 94% of total votes counted, and at 2:28 a.m. ET in the Democratic primary, with about 85% of total votes counted.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts in Nevada are not automatic, but a candidate may request and pay for one regardless of the vote margin. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Tuesday, there will be 147 days until the 2026 midterm elections.

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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.