US single-family housing starts plunge; building permits hit 3-1/2-year low

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON, Oct 20 (Reuters) – US single-family homebuilding fell sharply in September and permits for future construction tumbled to a 3-1/2-year low as higher mortgage rates suppressed demand, suggesting residential investment resumed its declining trend in the third quarter.

The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday followed on the heels of a National Association of Home Builders survey on Monday showing sentiment among single-family homebuilders plunged in October to the lowest level since June 2012.

The deterioration in sentiment was blamed on rising material costs and mortgage rates as well as more expensive diesel and “worsening” labor conditions amid an immigration crackdown. Expensive mortgages have combined with still-elevated home prices to create what economists have called an affordability crisis, which is dominating campaign messaging ahead of the crucial November 3 midterm elections.

​President Donald Trump earlier this year refused to sign a bipartisan housing affordability bill, calling ​it “a big yawn” as he pressed Congress, including fellow Republicans resisting his demands, to first pass ‌separate ⁠and contentious voting requirements legislation. The housing bill became law without Trump’s signature.

“The weakness in housing starts is not surprising. Even if homebuilders were putting up new houses, who could afford to buy them?” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. “The housing market is about to go into a deep sleep unless Washington can do a 180 on its policies and make the cost of a new home more affordable.”

Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 4.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 859,000 units last month, the lowest level since September 2025, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said.

Homebuilding fell over the month in the South, Midwest and West regions, but increased in the Northeast. Single-family starts rose 2.6% on a year-on-year basis in September.

Mortgage rates have surged in recent weeks, with the 30-year fixed rate averaging 7.40% last week, the highest level in nearly three years, data from mortgage finance firm Freddie Mac showed. The higher borrowing costs are tracking Treasury yields as the US-Israeli war with Iran fans inflation.

Slumping sales have led to a glut of new unsold houses on the market, further reducing the incentive for developers to break ground on new single-family housing projects. Despite the overhang of new single-family homes, there is a national housing shortage, which is keeping home prices elevated.

OIL PRICE SHOCK

Single-family building permits decreased 4.0% to a rate of 845,000 units, the lowest level since March 2023. Permits fell in the Northeast, Midwest and South regions, but were unchanged in the West. They dropped 4.8% year-on-year in September.

Residential investment rebounded in the second quarter, also reflecting renovations, making a small contribution to gross domestic product. The rise followed five straight quarterly declines. Housing’s share of gross domestic product is small, allowing the economy to continue expanding.

Morgan Stanley estimated that residential investment contracted at a 4.0% annualized rate in the third quarter. Economic growth estimates for the quarter stayed just above a 3.0% pace. The economy grew at a 2.2% rate in the April-June quarter. The government is due to publish its advance estimate of third-quarter GDP next week.

Some economists said the building of data centers to support AI technology was worsening construction worker shortages. A separate report from the National Association of Realtors showed pending home sales crumbled to a record low in September.

But some economists viewed the slump in single-family homebuilding as necessary given the inventory bloat, with the NAHB survey also showing buyer traffic slumping in October to the lowest level since April 2012.

“So, if builders just proceeded without making an adjustment, inventories would quickly back up,” said Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander US Capital Markets. “Hopefully, the slower pace of starts will prevent the market from getting too far out of balance.”

The number of single-family houses approved for construction that are yet to be started was unchanged at a near 4-1/2-year high of 151,000 units, while completions fell 2.4% to a rate of 840,000 units — the lowest level since May 2020. The inventory of single-family housing under construction was flat at 587,000 units.

Starts for housing projects with five units or more, a very volatile segment, plummeted 7.2% to a rate of 349,000 units in September. Multifamily housing starts plunged 25.9% on a year-over-year basis. Overall housing starts decreased 5.2% to a pace of 1.221 million units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts dropping to a rate of 1.305 million units.

They declined 7.4% on a year-over-year basis in September. Building permits for multifamily housing projects increased 5.9% to a rate of 503,000 units last month. Overall building permits slipped 0.2% to a rate of 1.400 million units. Economists had forecast permits falling to a rate of 1.395 million units.

Permits dropped 3.0% on a year-over-year basis in September.

“Our best assessment is that starts will falter in the months ahead until the energy shock is better understood,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. “So don’t bet on residential construction to recover anytime soon.”

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci)