Analysis-Brazil’s Lula to reap gains from Bolsonaro family flight

By Lisandra Paraguassu and Oliver Griffin

BRASILIA/SAO PAULO, Oct 29 (Reuters) – Flavio Bolsonaro did leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva a huge favor by fleeing his legal problems in Brazil to declare himself Brazil’s rightful “leader” from his new home in the United States, analysts and Brazilian officials said.

Bolsonaro’s departure, which came after he refused to comply with a Supreme Court order to surrender his passports, weakens an emboldened conservative opposition in Brazil’s Congress and lends credibility to Lula’s accusations of US meddling to help the Bolsonaro family, they said. 

Bolsonaro says he was a victim of an electoral coup, but has not provided evidence for electoral fraud.

While Lula faces a groaning inbox of challenges, from taming growing debt to grooming a credible leftist successor, he now has one less Bolsonaro to worry about, allowing him to build a more transactional relationship with leaderless congressional opponents, they added.

“Considering the local dynamics, Lula benefits from Flavio’s escape to the US,” said Rodrigo Russo, a São Paulo-based partner at consultancy firm Control Risks.

BOLSONARISMO WEAKENED

Lula’s victory has been recognized by Brazil’s federal electoral court, global leaders, international observers, and Bolsonaro’s own party, which did not back Bolsonaro’s claims of electoral fraud. 

On Thursday, the day after Flavio moved to the United States, his political allies sought to distance themselves from his claims of being Brazil’s legitimate “leader.” 

Bolsonaro’s exit is likely to spark a power vacuum over who will now lead Brazil’s right that Lula may be able to exploit.

“There’s generally more willingness to engage with an administration that has secured a new term,” Rafael Cortez, a political scientist and partner at Tendencias Consultoria, said. “An opening for dialogue emerges.”

Flavio’s father, Jair Bolsonaro, is currently serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a 2022 coup, while his brother, former lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro, is also based in the United States and unlikely to return to Brazil. 

Jair Bolsonaro’s three other children are not currently seen as credible torchbearers of Bolsonarismo.

Michelle Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro’s wife and a prominent evangelical who appeals to millions of Brazil’s faithful, is taking her first steps in Congress after being elected senator this month.

On Tuesday, the head of Flavio Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party, Valdemar Costa Neto, posted a photo on X of him smiling alongside her, saying they had discussed “the future of our party and the challenges we face ahead.”

Flavio’s exit has weakened Bolsonarismo, a Lula aide told Reuters.

The adviser said that the right-wing opposition that remains in Brazil will likely deal with Lula more pragmatically. “It creates space for the emergence of a more democratic right, something we’ve seen the country is clearly missing,” the aide said.

US-BRAZIL TIES MAY BECOME STRAINED

Bolsonaro’s flight to the United States lends credibility to Lula’s claims of improper US support to bolster his candidacy, analysts said, while complicating relations between the two most populous nations in the Americas.   

In July 2025, Washington announced a series of measures against Brazil, including the revocations of eight Supreme Court justices’ visas and 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, citing the alleged “persecution” of Jair Bolsonaro for putting him on trial.

So far, US President Donald Trump has criticized Brazil’s election but skirted around questions over which candidate won, which experts interpret as him wanting to maintain a working relationship with Brazil, home to the world’s second-largest reserves of rare earths after China.

Bolsonaro’s departure “complicates the relationship with the US government, which will have stakeholders pushing for sanctions and tariffs,” Russo said. 

The Lula adviser said Trump is likely to be more concerned about weak polls ahead of next week’s midterms than about ties with Brazil. 

The US will not want to pay a high price for backing Bolsonaro, especially as it tries to limit Chinese influence in the region, including around issues like rare earths, said Mario Braga, a Latin America analyst at the risk consultancy RANE.

“It’s a pragmatic view because Brazil is a key piece in the chess game the United States is playing as it seeks to expand its influence in the Americas,” Braga said.

(Reporting by Lisandra Paraguassu and Oliver Griffin; Editing by Gabriel Stargardter and Aurora Ellis)