Analysis-Errant Ukrainian drones fuel tensions on NATO’s eastern flank

By Andrius Sytas, Johan Ahlander and Tom Balmforth

VILNIUS/STOCKHOLM/LONDON, May 27 (Reuters) – Ukrainian drones have strayed into Baltic countries’ airspace in recent weeks, sowing confusion and raising tensions with Russia at a time when U.S. commitment to NATO’s collective security is in question.

The airspace incursions have occurred as Ukraine, seeking to land heavier blows on Russia four years after Moscow’s full-scale invasion, uses exploding drones to hit Russian Baltic ports that handle nearly 40% of national oil and gas exports.

In most cases, Kyiv and the Baltic states have confirmed the stray drones are Ukrainian but have blamed Russia for causing them to deviate from their flight path with the use of electronic defences that jam or spoof signals.

Such devices are widely used by Russia and Ukraine to disrupt the navigation of enemy drones and missiles.

Russia has suggested the Baltic states are colluding to let Ukraine use their airspace to stage attacks on Russian targets. The Baltic states and Ukraine deny this.

The Baltic states in the NATO military alliance – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – are staunch supporters of Kyiv and accuse Russia of using escalatory language to intimidate them in the hope they will persuade Ukraine to stop its attacks.

“They’re desperately now using any kind of opportunity to divide the Western part of the world and … to put more pressure on Ukraine not to launch these attacks,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in a phone interview.

‘THREAT LEVEL GROWING’

Most of the drones have caused no damage, crashing into open fields or flying back out of Baltic airspace, but there is a sense of growing unease.

A NATO military jet shot down a suspected Ukrainian drone in Estonia on May 19, in what NATO told Reuters was the first time its military jet mission in the Baltics had “fired a missile in defence of the Alliance” since the three states joined in 2004.

On May 20, Lithuanian lawmakers were forced to take shelter underground as a drone approached Vilnius. The following day, an air alert was issued in northern Lithuania.

“The threat level is growing. Drones are flying in. They are Ukrainian, but some are loaded with explosives and can hit civilian objects. We must protect people,” Lithuanian Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas told Reuters.

Asta Skaisgiryte, foreign policy adviser to Lithuania’s president, said the Baltics were facing a particularly intense phase now because of progress by Ukraine in drone warfare that is making its long-range attacks more potent.

She said it was possible Russia was deliberately redirecting drones to fly into neighbouring states.

Several drones have entered Baltic airspace undetected, highlighting gaps in air defences on NATO’s border with Russia and Belarus.

Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina was forced to resign after firing her defence minister, blaming him for the lack of air defences.

‘SERIOUS’ INVESTIGATION UNDER WAY

Despite unequivocal support for Ukraine, Estonian officials have told Kyiv that airspace incursions are not helpful and said they expect Ukraine to control its drones better.

A Ukrainian military source said a “serious” investigation was under way to determine how Russia was causing Ukrainian drones to veer from their flight path into Baltic airspace.

A senior Swedish military source said Ukraine was flying its drones deliberately close to the Baltic border with Russia, using it as a kind of shield, knowing Russia would not want to fire into NATO territory and risk direct confrontation.

Ukraine’s foreign ministry denied that. It accused Russia of jamming the drones to deliberately direct them towards the Baltics and said Kyiv picks flight paths that minimise any threat to their Baltic allies.

“We have intelligence about Russia deliberately doing this, these are not just abstract claims on our side,” said Heorhii Tykhyi, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry.

Russia’s embassies in Vilnius and Stockholm did not reply to requests for comment for this story.

‘PURE FICTION’

Last week, Russia’s ambassador to the U.N. told a Security Council meeting Moscow had information that Ukraine planned to launch military drones from inside Latvia and other Baltic states, and warned that Russia would fire back.

Although Latvia’s envoy dismissed his comemnts as “pure fiction”, Russia’s foreign intelligence service SVR said Riga had agreed to the arrangement despite fearing it would become “a victim of Moscow’s retaliatory strike”.

Tsahkna and Kaunas said they interpreted such statements as a sign of weakness by Russia as it struggles to counter Ukrainian drones or advance significantly on the battlefield.

Linas Kojala, head of the Vilnius-based Geopolitics and Security Studies Center, said there was a risk of accidental miscalculation from “provocative” Russian actions.

“The tensions are high, there is a risk of an unintended escalation,” he told Reuters.

Although European politicians see Russia as a major threat, the United States, which is NATO’s biggest military power and has tens of thousands of troops in Europe, has sent mixed signals over its commitment to the continent’s defence.

President Donald Trump has suggested the U.S. could even leave NATO, and Washington said this month it was delaying a troop deployment to Poland, but days later announced it was sending an additional 5,000 personnel.

A Baltic security official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said his agency viewed Russia’s rhetoric as predominantly designed for domestic consumption to focus attention on the “war-mongering Europeans”.

“They want to hide the fact that they are actually struggling in coping with the Ukrainian drone attacks,” said the official. “From our perspective, the security situation in the region has not changed.”

(Reporting by Andrius Sytas in Vilnius, Johan Ahlander in Stockholm, Dan Flynn in Kyiv, Tom Balmforth in London; Additional reporting by Lili Bayev in Brussels; Writing by Tom Balmforth; Editing by Gwladys Fouche, Mike Collett-White and Timothy Heritage)