Poll shows far‑right leader and independent admiral tied in race for Portugal’s presidency

By Sergio Goncalves

LISBON (Reuters) -Far-right leader Andre Ventura and a former navy admiral running as an independent are neck-and-neck in voter intentions for Portugal’s January presidential election, a poll showed Friday.

A poll by ICS/ISCTE for Expresso showed Ventura and independent candidate Henrique Gouveia e Melo tied at 18% support. Former Social Democrat leader Luis Marques Mendes followed with 16%, while ex-Socialist leader Antonio José Seguro polled at 10%.

No candidate is expected to win outright in the January 18 first round, making a February 8 runoff almost certain.

Portugal’s presidency is largely ceremonial but plays a key role in bridging its fragmented political landscape and holds the power to dissolve parliament and dismiss the government.

Ventura’s strong showing reflects the rapid rise of his far-right Chega party, founded in 2019 and now the second-largest party in parliament after surpassing the Socialists in May’s general election.

The 42-year-old former sports commentator and law professor has argued that it might be easier to transform the country by winning the presidency than through legislative elections and has pledged to be “an interventionist agent” if he wins.

Still, the poll suggests Ventura would lose to Gouveia e Melo or Marques Mendes in a second round, reflecting a high level of voter rejection beyond his party’s base.

“Ventura wants to take advantage of this election campaign to continue establishing his party in the country, but he knows that if he makes it to the second round of the election he probably won’t win,” said Adelino Maltez, a political scientist at Lisbon University.

Ventura has pledged to fight corruption among mainstream parties that have ruled for five decades. He faces criticism for remarks seen as racist toward the Roma community and South Asian immigrants.

Gouveia e Melo, 65, rose to national prominence in 2021 as coordinator of Portugal’s COVID-19 vaccination campaign.

Positioning himself between socialism and social democracy, he has insisted he is the only truly independent candidate.

The November 7-17 poll of 807 people had a margin of error of 3.5%.

(Reporting by Sergio Goncalves; editing by Charlie Devereux and Ros Russell)