The Media Line: Can War Be Averted As Iran Obfuscates in Oman? 

Can War Be Averted As Iran Obfuscates in Oman? 

If Iran uses the time bought by procedural talks to advance its nuclear program, the eventual confrontation may be worse than the one the Gulf states worked to prevent 

By Jacob Wirtschafter/The Media Line 

This is a developing story. 

US-Iran nuclear talks concluded their first round Friday after 90 minutes, with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warning against American “adventurism.” 

The brief procedural meeting, mediated by Oman’s foreign minister, Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, in separate sessions with Iranian and US delegations, focused on what Oman’s foreign ministry described as “preparing appropriate circumstances for resuming diplomatic and technical negotiations.” 

Gulf states worked to prevent the talks from collapsing. Israeli officials were positioned for a breakdown that could reopen the path to military pressure. 

That helps explain why Gulf governments intervened last week to rescue talks on the brink of cancellation after Iran demanded a venue change. 

Regional diplomats and analysts interviewed in Ankara, Dubai, and Manama said Gulf states pressed Washington to accept Iran’s request to move talks from Istanbul to Oman to prevent an immediate collapse that would have left military escalation as the only option. 

Negotiations were initially planned for Istanbul, with Turkish mediation and a broader framework addressing Iran’s missile program, regional proxies, and human rights alongside the nuclear issue. 

Iran rejected that structure, insisting on a bilateral format limited to nuclear issues and conducted through Oman. US officials initially pushed back. 

Regional pressure mounted. Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani spoke with Araghchi about “reducing tension.” Kuwait urged “common sense.” The UAE’s senior diplomat, Anwar Gargash, warned that the region “does not need another confrontation.” Axios reported that nine countries urged Trump administration officials not to walk away. 

The reason for the urgency was fear that diplomatic collapse could trigger missile strikes on US bases or energy infrastructure across the Gulf. 

Iran’s insistence on Oman was not merely procedural. 

Friday’s format followed Iran’s demands: Al-Busaidi met separately with Araghchi, then with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential adviser Jared Kushner. The indirect channel kept both sides insulated. 

Araghchi’s warning against “adventurism,” delivered to Iranian state media after the session, signaled Tehran remains focused on managing US military pressure. 

“Iran is very sensitive about respect,” said Serhan Afacan, head of the Center for Iranian Studies in Ankara. “Iranian officials often say they want negotiations, but when negotiations start, they hesitate.” 

That pattern creates risk and results in talks that continue without progress while Iran uses the diplomatic process as cover and Israel readies for the collapse of negotiations. 

Mahdi Ghuloom, a Dubai-based researcher at the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, said Iran viewed Muscat as uniquely credible precisely because it doesn’t seek public diplomatic credit or align closely with Washington’s regional agenda. When talks briefly moved to Rome last year, Iranian officials complained about excessive media presence and exiled opposition protests. 

“Oman isn’t just a communication channel for Iran,” Ghuloom told The Media Line. “It also advocates for Iran’s position in the Gulf as a state that should be engaged, even if there are disagreements over how much engagement is appropriate.” 

From a Gulf perspective, Oman’s value lay less in brokering breakthroughs than in preventing miscalculation, though Friday’s procedural round raises questions about whether even that limited goal can be sustained. 

Mostafa Ahmed, a researcher at Al Habtoor Research in Dubai who specializes in Gulf security frameworks, described the current engagement as “decompression” rather than resolution. 

“Oman’s facilitation is valued precisely because it offers a discreet, credible intermediary function rather than a promise of comprehensive reconciliation,” he said in an email exchange. 

US officials describe diplomacy in binary terms: a deal or failure. Gulf states view the process itself as security infrastructure. 

Ahmed distinguished between “resolution” and “decompression.” The Oman track, he told The Media Line, is a decompression measure that “allows both parties to navigate their domestic political cycles without inciting a kinetic crisis that the region cannot afford.” 

Gulf states accepted Iran’s insistence on sequencing — nuclear issues first, regional issues later — because “they simply need the talks to remove the nuclear accelerant from the equation,” Ahmed said. 

If Iran uses the time bought by procedural talks to advance its nuclear program, the eventual confrontation may be worse than the one Gulf states worked to prevent. 

Ghuloom said most Bahrainis hope Oman’s mediation will work “because Bahrain would be among the biggest victims of any escalation.” Bahrain cannot participate directly because it does not have diplomatic relations with Iran. 

Israeli officials told local media they expect the Muscat talks to collapse. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened an emergency cabinet meeting ahead of negotiations, moving it up from Sunday. 

Ghuloom said from Israel’s perspective, the Trump team “ended the last war and its objectives too early.” Installing the former shah’s son has attracted Israeli support, “but those goals are very hard to achieve. The perception may be that advancing military objectives through US engagement is the most realistic path.” 

If Iran delays substantive engagement through procedural rounds, Israel’s assessment may prove correct. 

Afacan told The Media Line that for Turkey, Israel is currently perceived as a more immediate threat than Iran. “As a result, there is no unified regional view on which actor represents the primary source of instability.” 

Abraham Accords states continue to see Iran’s nuclear program as an existential threat. 

Gulf officials say Iran’s credibility will be judged by behavior, not meetings. 

Ahmed outlined three thresholds: maritime conduct in the Strait of Hormuz, infrastructure targeting, and proxy discipline. “Gray zone harassment” in the Strait signals that Iran views talks as cover rather than as a means of de-escalation. Kinetic targeting of energy or desalination infrastructure would be “an irreversible breach of the decompression framework.” 

For Bahrain, hosting the US Fifth Fleet near residential areas, the stakes are high. “The damage from escalation could be deadly,” Ghuloom said, noting “Iran-supported components operating in Bahrain.” 

The 90-minute procedural session suggests talks may be cover, not restraint. 

The vulnerability is not hypothetical. In the 10 days before Friday’s talks, Bahrain accelerated civil defense preparations. 

On Jan. 27, the US Fifth Fleet base conducted a mass casualty drill involving Naval Security Forces, the base’s Fire and Emergency Department, and Bahraini first responders. 

Four days later, on Jan. 31, Bahrain tested its wireless emergency alert system nationwide. At 9:30 p.m., mobile devices received notifications labeled “Emergency alert: Severe.” The Interior Ministry had announced the test four hours earlier. 

That same day, Iran announced live-fire naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz for Feb. 1-2. 

The alert system, approved by Bahrain’s Civil Defense Council on Jan. 15, expands the existing siren infrastructure tested previously in June 2025. 

Bahrain’s Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid bin Abdullah Al Khalifa said the National Emergency Strategy focuses on coordination among government agencies and partnerships with regional and international organizations. 

The drills and alerts show Bahrain preparing for scenarios where mediation fails. 

Friday’s brevity was not a setback. It was the strategy. 

Gulf states are preparing for “managed stagnation”: negotiations that continue without breakthrough but prevent high-intensity conflict. 

Ahmed described two scenarios: continued talks in which “the process becomes a container for tensions,” or “compartmentalized breakdown,” in which negotiations collapse but escalation remains geographically limited. “The planning focuses on aggressive neutrality and ensuring GCC territories are explicitly decoupled from any offensive postures,” he said. 

No one is planning for a comprehensive settlement. 

Oman’s statement referenced “resuming” negotiations but provided no timeline. Talks that exist in perpetual preparation allow both sides to claim engagement while avoiding compromises. 

Iran’s pattern —demanding negotiations, then hesitating when they begin—suggests even Oman’s mediation may only postpone confrontation. 

For Bahrain, hosting the US Fifth Fleet close to residential areas, the stakes are immediate. 

“The damage from escalation could be deadly,” Ghuloom said.