The Media Line: Election Surveys Split Over Whether Netanyahu Bloc Can Reach Knesset Majority 

Election Surveys Split Over Whether Netanyahu Bloc Can Reach Knesset Majority 

By The Media Line Staff 

Israeli election polls published in recent days show sharply different projections for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s potential governing bloc and its rivals, with Likud ranging from 18 to 32 seats and parties generally identified with Netanyahu ranging from 49 to 63. The disparities come one month before Israel’s Oct. 27 election and stem partly from substantial differences among pollsters over Likud’s support and whether smaller parties clear the 3.25% electoral threshold. 

Five recent surveys put Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party in a much narrower range of 22 to 23 seats. Likud’s results varied far more widely, making the size of any potential Netanyahu-led coalition highly dependent on the poll. 

Channel 14 produced the strongest result for Netanyahu’s camp, giving Likud 32 seats and Yashar 22. The poll projected 63 seats for parties identified with a potential Netanyahu-led coalition, enough for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. 

An i24NEWS survey put Likud at 27 seats and Yashar at 22. It projected 60 seats for parties aligned with Netanyahu, one short of a majority. The remaining seats were divided among Zionist opposition parties and Arab parties, with smaller lists affecting the precise bloc calculation. 

Maariv produced a substantially different picture, giving Likud 18 seats and Yashar 22. It put the current Netanyahu-aligned parties at 49 seats. The Zionist opposition parties received a combined 55 seats, while Arab parties were counted separately. 

An N12 survey gave Yashar 23 seats to Likud’s 20. It projected 50 seats for Netanyahu-aligned parties and 54 for the Zionist opposition. Arab parties received 12 seats. The Reservists-Economic Party, which won four seats in the poll, was treated separately rather than being automatically assigned to either main bloc. 

Channel 13 also placed Yashar ahead, with 22 seats to Likud’s 18. The survey gave Netanyahu-aligned parties 51 seats, the Zionist opposition 52 and Arab parties 13. 

The differences are magnified by smaller parties hovering near the threshold. Ofer Winter’s People of Israel is generally regarded as a potential Netanyahu coalition partner and is included in some calculations of the pro-Netanyahu bloc. The Reservists-Economic Party led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha is harder to classify consistently: some pollsters place it with the Zionist opposition, while others list it separately. That difference can shift a bloc total by several seats even when the underlying party results are identical. 

The polls continue to project seats for the Joint List and Ra’am even though the Central Elections Committee voted Sept. 23 to bar both Arab lists from running. Those decisions are being challenged in the Supreme Court, which has repeatedly overturned similar disqualifications in past elections. The attorney general opposed the current bans, and Israeli legal and political reporting widely expects the court to allow the parties to remain on the ballot, although it has not yet ruled. 

A Zman Yisrael poll published Thursday divided the Knesset into three broad camps. It gave 53 seats to parties supporting Netanyahu, 53 to Zionist parties opposing him and 14 to Arab parties — eight for the Joint List and six for Ra’am. Both major blocs were therefore eight seats short of the 61 needed for a majority. 

That poll put Yashar first with 23 seats, followed by Likud with 21 and B’Yachad with 12. It also found that 67% of respondents who supported the Zionist anti-Netanyahu parties wanted their leaders to agree on a single candidate for prime minister. 

Israel elects its 120-member Knesset through nationwide proportional representation. A party must receive at least 3.25% of valid votes to enter parliament. Coalition negotiations after the election determine who can assemble the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.