The Media Line: International Crisis Group Rates Pakistan as Most Affected by Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan  

International Crisis Group Rates Pakistan as Most Affected by Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan  

By Arshad Mehmood/The Media Line  

The Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) says Pakistan has been the country most affected since the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in 2021. It warns that, despite a ceasefire, continued terror attacks could prompt Islamabad to consider renewed military action against its western neighbor.  

In a new report, the ICG notes that relations between the two countries have become increasingly strained. The primary source of tension, it says, is the Afghan Taliban’s refusal to take decisive action against Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).  

According to the ICG report, “UN monitors say the TTP enjoys support from the Taliban, but the Taliban publicly denies that Pakistani militants are even present in Afghanistan. They argue instead that Islamabad has provoked the TTP and portray the violence as an internal Pakistani issue.”  

In its report, the ICG warned that if Islamabad traces another attack against Pakistan back to Afghanistan, it could consider launching renewed strikes across the border.   

Islamabad’s external relations in South Asia are under far greater strain. Following brief conflicts with both Afghanistan and India in 2025, another major militant attack could further undermine the fragile and uncertain peace between Pakistan and its two neighbors, the report added.  

Violence in Pakistan has increased since 2022. In 2025 alone, terror attacks killed more than 600 Pakistani soldiers and police personnel, with most incidents occurring in the two provinces bordering Afghanistan—Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan.  

While the Taliban government may not be able to match Pakistan militarily, its response could still prove deadly. Kabul claims it possesses missiles capable of reaching Pakistani cities a move that would likely trigger an even stronger response from Pakistan.  

Following a TTP attack on Oct. 8 that killed 11 Pakistani military personnel in the country’s west, Islamabad carried out cross-border airstrikes. The first strike targeted Kabul and reportedly aimed at TTP chief Noor Wali Mehsud.  

Afghanistan responded with attacks on Pakistani military installations. The ensuing exchanges resulted in casualties on both sides, including military personnel and civilians. Islamabad holds  Baloch terror groups and the proscribed TTP responsible for these attacks. 

 Pakistani authorities say they possess evidence supporting their claim that these groups receive backing from Pakistan’s traditional rival, India.  

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s federal minister for information and broadcasting, Attaullah Tarar, vowed on Friday that TTP is an enemy of the state and will be eliminated.  

Speaking at a press conference in Islamabad, Tarar said the state would take action against the banned group and expressed full confidence in the armed forces, security institutions, and the country’s youth.  

“As information minister, I state this clearly: The TTP is Pakistan’s enemy. Until my last breath and the last drop of blood, we will eliminate it,” he said. “I say this with complete resolve — we will finish it.”   

Tarar said the source of the state’s strength lies in its faith and trust in its armed institutions, noting that security personnel leave their homes each day without certainty of returning.