The Media Line: Israel Sees Historic Low Population Growth Below 1%   

Israel Sees Historic Low Population Growth Below 1%   

By The Media Line Staff   

Population growth in Israel has dipped below 1% to 0.9%, the lowest number since the founding of the state and significantly less than previous steep declines to 1.42% in 1981 and 1.35% in 1983.   

The TAUB Center for Social Policy Studies in Israel released the numbers on Wednesday. It attributed the decline to an increase in the number of people leaving the country, along with stagnant birth and rising death rates.   

The sharpest drop in fertility has already occurred since 2018, though current rates remain above those seen in 2005.   

The study projects that by 2030, secular Jewish women will have an average of 1.7 children. Fertility among religious and traditional-religious Jewish women is expected to fall to about 2.3 children, while rates among Haredi women are projected to decline to around 4.3 by 2040.    

Similar trends are forecast in Arab Israeli society, with fertility projected to drop to 2.7 among religious women and 2.0 among non-religious women within the next decade.   

Alex Weinreb said in the study, “We are at the beginning of a new era in Israel’s demographic development. The peak period of natural increase has passed, alongside a less stable — and even negative — migration balance, two factors that represent a clear break from past patterns.”   

Net migration was negative for a second consecutive year, with an estimated 37,000 more people leaving Israel than arriving, up from 26,000 the year before.    

Population growth is also being affected by rising mortality, with annual deaths increasing from about 46,000 in 2018 to roughly 51,000 in 2024. Deaths are expected to rise significantly through 2040 as a larger share of the population reaches older age brackets.   

Despite these changes, the study forecasts annual population growth of about 1.0% to 1.4% through 2040, keeping Israel among the fastest-growing developed countries.